Do not read if you are of a nervous political disposition.

So, Jody Dunn made it a near run thing in Hartlepool last night. She achieved a swing of 18%, which is very impressive.

In Stirling, it would take a swing of about 16 % (Lab to Lib Dem) for a Liberal Democrat to take the seat. If you take the Scottish Election result as the starting point, the required swing is less. However, it has to be remembered that the University ward Logie and Bridge of Allan (would be Lib Dem bastion!) are now in Stirling constituency for a General Election. This moves things the LD way nicely. However, this is to discount other parties. It remains to be seen whether the Nationalists are going to maintain their slight recent recovery of confidence. My presumption is that the SSP will do a little better than last time and that UKIP will split the Tory vote.

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