Well, you heard it here first – I was predicting a hung parliament in January. Its not quite the result that I was hoping for, but I’m pleased that neither of the two larger parties can simply do as they like.

So, what’s to come today?

David Cameron says that Labour has lost its mandate to govern. Well, it has certainly lost the mandate to govern as he chooses. However, from a Scottish perspective, the Tories have little mandate either.

Here’s my prediction early on in the day. My guess is that Labour will offer the Lib Dems electoral reform, but that the Lib Dems will hesistate in the face of the fact that what will be on offer is reform but not proportional representation.

I suspect that we are heading for an attempt by the Conservative party to govern as a minority party.

If you want another prediction, my guess is that we’ll have such a government for a three years or so – limping along and becoming weaker over time. Meanwhile, Labour will choose a new leader (Milliband?). Then another election with Labour having a commitment to AV+ in its election manifesto. My guess is that some of the Tory gains will be reversed at the next election, which will once more result in a hung parliament.


  1. All very well saying Labour have “lost their mandate to govern” when he’s not actually gained one either…

    I guess a hung parliament has been most likely for the past few weeks, much as one might wish for a happier colour. I’ll bear the rest of your predictions in mind for later though 🙂

  2. Aaron says

    Here in Canada we’ve had a minority government for five years now, with little sign of it falling. The Conservative PM is pretty bland, but the Liberals have the least inspiring leader you could imagine and the NDP are lead by a nutter. (And the Bloc isn’t national.) The opposition parties don’t want to trigger an election, because they fear that the voters would blame them for having to trudge to the polls. That and they’re even less popular than our lackluster PM.

    I think a minority government works, actually, simply because the governing party has to seek consensus. (And, in our case, the opposition parties have to as well.) Then again, I’m from the States where the President needs Congress and the voters often elect them from opposite parties.

  3. David | Dah•veed says

    Off Topic –

    I am surprised that you have not said anything at MadPriest’s post about you. Especially since it has such a large photo.

  4. I saw that photo too! Kelvin does look a bit camp in it.

  5. Well, it’s not as butch as the Italian Vanity Fair photos 😉

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