Predictions for 2019

  1. The UK will begin leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. It will take 10 years to leave, 10 years for it to be evident to the whole country how stupid it was and 10 years to get back in, with none of our current special measures.  (Hope this prediction doesn’t come to pass but fear it will).
  2. The only thing to make EU-positive lefty-liberals to have pause for thought will be the EU Elections in May which will result in big gains for the so-called populist right.
  3. No progress towards same-sex marriage in the Church of England, despite much clearer calls for it to happen.
  4. Significant concerns in many UK dioceses about the cost of bishops, and particularly their spouses, attending the Lambeth Conference in 2020. (Over £5000 each).
  5. Elizabeth Warren / Beto O’Rourke begin to emerge as the Democratic dream ticket.
  6. Stricter legislation in connection with drone operators.
  7. Steps towards legalisation of cannabis  under serious consideration within SNP.
  8. No referendum on Independence.
  9. Cyber attacks merging with terrorist attacks
  10. One of Scotland’s daily newspapers ceases print publication.

Review of Predictions for 2018

On 1 January I made predictions for the coming year. Time to see how I got on.

1 – General Election in the second half of the year.

Well, no we didn’t and the government linger on. Not right

2 – “…and as the polls close, our exit poll predicts that the Conservative Party is unlikely to be able to form a new government…”

Well, the government did linger on of a fashion.  N/A

3 – The next but one leader of the Conservative Party becomes Ruth Davidson MP.

Too soon to tell. Not right yet.

4 – The hipsters get bored of vinyl and discover cameras with actual, you know, film.

In September, I happened upon three or four hipster types from Denmark in the cathedral grounds taking photographs for a fashion shoot in Belgium. They had stopped shooting for a moment…. to reload film canasters.  Right – but likely to become more common yet.

5 – No date for a new referendum on Scottish Independence.

No date for a new referendum and no great call for one either. Right.

6 – No progress for LGBT affirming Anglicans in England.

Sadly correct. Right

7 – Progress for LGBT affirming Anglicans elsewhere, particularly Brazil.

Stunning progress in Brazil – marriage agreed by huge majority on synod floor. (And who else saw that coming!) Right.

8 – Increasing realisation that sexual abuse is part of church culture. #churchtoo #metoo.

Yes – meetings happening all over the place trying to work out how to respond. Few coherent policies yet. Right.

9 – FTSE lower at the end of 2018 than it is at the beginning. (7687)

As I write this the FTSE is at 6728 – worst year in a decade. Right

10 – The end of the beard.

Those with style, manners and culture have seen the error of their ways and shaved. A few young and misguided types cling on. Completely and utterly right.

 

Not a bad year, I think.