How were my Predictions last year?

31/12/2024

Time to check out how I did with the predictions I made on New Year’s Day 2024.

1 General Election in UK – Labour landslide. PM – Sir Keir Starmer. (No great change in policies from the Tory government that Labour will replace).

Yes – fulfilled in every way.

2 US politics will continue to be dominated by Donald Trump

Yes

3 In the US Presidential election in November there will be victory for the Republican Party.

Yes

4 AI/Deepfakes have a significant effect in electoral politics.

Not really – AI/Deepfakes are present but there’s no real evidence that they swung any particular election

5 Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine unresolved by end of 2024.

Alas Yes

6 No progress for those wanting marriage equality in the Church of England.

Alas Yes

7 Twitter goes bust or is sold or both.

Not quite. Twitter feels pretty wounded but still Xists.

8 The world will be warmer in 2024 than ever before.

Yes

9 Another country will join Nato.

Yes, Sweden in March.

A new agreement is reached between the UK and Greece on the Elgin/Parthenon Marbles that opens the door for at least some of them to be displayed in Athens.

Close but no cigar.

Not a bad year – 7 direct hits with a few misses.

5 responses to “Predictions for 2020”

Meg Rosenfeld

01/01/2020

As an American of the Democratic persuasion, I hope you’re right about the upcoming presidential election . . . and fear that you’re right about the division of the country. Having gay friends who are devout Roman Catholics, I desperately hope you’re right about the Roman church becoming more supportive of LGBT folks. And I guess we can only keep praying about Equal Marriage in the Church of England. Probably it’s just a good idea to keep praying, eh?!

Reply
Rosemary Hannah

01/01/2020

I think 6 is a certainty. I hope 8 isn’t. I think Starmer is the better choice.

Reply
Robert McLean

01/01/2020

Re No. 5, what is COP?

Reply
1. Kelvin
  
  03/01/2020
  
  COP is the Conference of the Parties which will be held in Glasgow this year. It is the largest international conference on Climate Change at which governments and many other organisations are present.
  
  Reply
Chris

02/01/2020

I find myself wondering which reason will lie behind 1 – because a referendum won’t be called, or because people will still, for some reason, think it’s a good idea to hang on to Westminster rule. And I agree with 6 and with Rosemary about Starmer – who would seem to have emerged as the front runner.

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