What is in Kelvin's Head?

How did I do with last year’s predictions?

31/12/2025
Here’s a run down of how I did at last year’s predictions.
- Good results for Nigel Farage following the English local elections in May. Terrible results for Conservative Party.
Exactly what happened. YES
- No progress towards the marriage of same-sex couples in the Church of England
Exactly what happened. Indeed, I think things may have gone into reverse. YES
- Turbulent year for WordPress, which powers about half of the internet.
The year began with Automattic dramatically cutting its contribution to development leading to stagnation in development and much acrimony. Subsequently restored. Deep divisions remain about Gutenberg. I’m claiming this as a YES.
- 2025 will be the hottest year on record.
Final figures yet to be calibrated but all reports indicate that this, unfortunately is a YES.
- No trade deal for UK with US. Increasing talk of re-aligning economy closer to EU.
Well, there was a trade deal in May called the Economic Prosperity Deal but it doesn’t seem to much and some of the basics have already been reversed. I suppose I have to be honest and say I didn’t get this quite right so it is a NO. But…
- Ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine war but no long term solution.
Hard to assess this one. No long term solution, certainly. There have been a series of ceasefires proposed but none seems really to have been fully implemented. Partial YES.
- “Assisted Dying” aka doctor assisted suicide becomes legal in at least one of the jurisdictions of the British Isles.
I have to put this down as a NO as it completed its parliamentary journey in the Isle of Man but hasn’t received Royal Assent yet, so not technically legal.
- Turbulent year for economy but stock market higher at end of year than beginning. (FTSE currently at 8,173)
Stock market at 9,931 today and there was quite a lot of volatility in the first part of the year. So this one is a YES.
- There will be fewer Commonwealth Realms (ie countries which share the monarchy) by the end of 2025 than there are now.
This one is a NO though there has been significant progress in that direction in Jamaica and moves that way in Grenada.
- Philip Mountstephen.
Well, I was pushing Philip Mounstephen’s name as he appeared to be the only senior bishop in the C of E who actually believed the [absurd] position of the C of E bishops on same-sex relationships. But it is a NO – nothing significant to report.

So – five and a half out of ten this year. Not as good as some years. A couple of near misses.
new year, predictions. 2025

5 responses to “Predictions for 2020”

Meg Rosenfeld

01/01/2020

As an American of the Democratic persuasion, I hope you’re right about the upcoming presidential election . . . and fear that you’re right about the division of the country. Having gay friends who are devout Roman Catholics, I desperately hope you’re right about the Roman church becoming more supportive of LGBT folks. And I guess we can only keep praying about Equal Marriage in the Church of England. Probably it’s just a good idea to keep praying, eh?!

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Rosemary Hannah

01/01/2020

I think 6 is a certainty. I hope 8 isn’t. I think Starmer is the better choice.

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Robert McLean

01/01/2020

Re No. 5, what is COP?

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1. Kelvin
  
  03/01/2020
  
  COP is the Conference of the Parties which will be held in Glasgow this year. It is the largest international conference on Climate Change at which governments and many other organisations are present.
  
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Chris

02/01/2020

I find myself wondering which reason will lie behind 1 – because a referendum won’t be called, or because people will still, for some reason, think it’s a good idea to hang on to Westminster rule. And I agree with 6 and with Rosemary about Starmer – who would seem to have emerged as the front runner.

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