• Predictions 2022 – How did I do?

    Time to see how I did with my predictions at the start of the year.

    Boris Johnson will be replaced with a Prime Minister who is more competent, more right wing and more difficult to beat.

    Well, if we skip lightly over the horror of Liz Truss’s premiership, I’m going to claim this one as fulfilled. Left and right designations in politics mean less as the years go on. Prediction fulfilled.

    A good year for Michael Gove (who is almost invisible at the moment).

    I’m claiming this one too. He’s back in government and less invisible. If you don’t agree, you probably don’t read the Daily Telegraph. Prediction fulfilled.

    Church of Scotland General Assembly votes to allow same-sex couples to be married in church. More significantly, almost no-one leaves in a huff.

    Exactly what happened. Prediction Fulfilled.

    No progress for those seeking marriage equality in the Church of England.

    Sadly. Prediction Fulfilled

    US Republican Party do well at the November midterms.

    Gloriously, prediction unfulfilled.

    Midnight Mass will happen at St Mary’s Cathedral, Glasgow – some people will still be wearing masks but it won’t be mandatory.

    Yes, I did see a few mask wearers but we were getting back to prepandemic levels of attendence and Midnight Mass was a blast. Prediction fulfilled.

    Lots of people discover that cryptocurrency is not the sure thing that they thought. (Losses will disproportionately affect young people).

    Oh my, yes. What a mess some people have got themselves into. Prediction fulfilled.

    Nicola Sturgeon will be forced to announce a proposed date for an Independence Referendum against her better judgement.

    She announed on 23 June 2022 that it would be held on 19 October 2023. (Spoiler alert – it won’t happen on 19 October 2023). Prediction fulfilled.

    Lambeth Conference will take place but some people forced to participate virtually due to continued pandemic in developing world. (No new sanctions against pro-gay provinces).

    Well it took place but I’m not sure whether or not there were virtual participants. However, there were no new sanctions against pro-gay provinces. Prediction largely fulfilled.

    Working from home/hybrid working becomes normalised for big companies. Consequent increase in ransomware demands.

    Working from home is certainly still going on and there are many big companies that are planning for it continuing in some form. (Here’s a government report about it). And yes, ransomware has increased. (Here’s a paper on it from the Chartered Institute of IT).


    I’m guessing that one or two people might want to argue about whether I got this all as right as I think I did – particularly the first two, but not a bad year overall.

9 responses to “RSA Animations”

  1. annie t Avatar
    annie t

    Fascinating stuff; like watching a (very) animated Paulo Freire! Loved the insight ‘collaboration is the stuff of growth’. Interesting implications for a congregational paradigm for theological education. Thanks Kelvin.

  2. kelvin Avatar

    Yes – I was also reminded of my synod question about TISEC, which I still don’t think I’ve received an adequate answer to, which was something like this: “Is learning through TISEC driven by normalised marking or learning outcomes?”

  3. Kimberly Avatar

    presumably neither, but by the grace of God?

    (‘normal’, ‘outcomes’, and ‘TISEC’ all in the same sentence could lead to much fun. But I suspect I’d head down the via negativa again.)

    1. kelvin Avatar

      The answer that I got was “both” though I’ve never believed that can be possible. I do believe that TISEC at one time or another took on the trappings of each of those learning models, but that is not the same thing at all.

  4. Rosemary Hannah Avatar
    Rosemary Hannah

    Can I gently suggest that the Tisec you love to hate has over the years changes significantly?

  5. kelvin Avatar

    TISEC has always claimed to be changing – in that way it always is the same.

    I do accept that things have changed but have no way of knowing whether they have changed for the better. I still know people whom it appears to suit and I still know people who get distressed by what is done to them within it. In that respect at least, again, it remains the same.

    I’ve said before now that one of the reasons that TISEC is something that still presents unresolved issues for some of us who went through it is that there was never any public accountability within the church over what was done to us. No-one was ever held responsible and even though TISEC itself went through several reviews, the reasons for those reviews being carried out were never transparent.

    I’d still be happy to receive a coherent answer to the question. Incidentally, when I was in TISEC, the answer was clear – it was driven by learning goals and outcomes.

    I was at the General Synod where we voted for TISEC to cease to be a teaching institution. That was a pretty strong decision and one which was enthusiastically celebrated by some. (I went to the celebratory lunch afterwards and some folk came up from England for it). That does make it hard to understand what has happened subsequently.

  6. Rosemary Hannah Avatar
    Rosemary Hannah

    More than it would be appropriate for me as a staff member to answer to, and more than I am the most appropriate person to answer to, educational theory not being my speciality. However, FWIW I can answer to the fact that normalised marking is firmly in place, and that our external examiner is more than happy with the standards our students achieve. Beyond doubt all those who get a diploma from us have achieved the educational equivalent of the first two years of University education.

  7. kelvin Avatar

    Well, this isn’t comparing like with like as the current external examiner acts for an institution (albeit one which may have a financial interest) that had nothing to do with TISEC when I was in it, however, I can say that the external reports on TISEC were always astonishingly good.

    All the more astonishing for those of us who were in TISEC at the time I was, actually.

    It would be interesting to compare the quantifiable academic achievements of Scottish ordinands over time. I’ve a notion that two years of university study falls short of the standards for ordinands which the General Synod was hoping for when it last voted on a report about TISEC.

  8. Rosemary Hannah Avatar
    Rosemary Hannah

    The current external examiner is, it is true, employed; however he is not a member of the qualifying institution. He is a member of another independent academic institution, thereby bringing to his examination direct knowledge of at least three bodies (theirs, ours and his as it were). The work of our students is scrutinised by two markers at Tisec, and each piece of work scrutinised by the external examiner who checks it is achieving the same standards as YSJ. The over-all standard of YSJ is likewise scrutinised to ensure it too is achieving work of the same standard for the same level as other Universities.

    The question of whether standards nationally have risen or fallen is a different question, and harder to ascertain. We may indeed have our own different opinions. But I think it beyond doubt that the general level of the work of Tisec students is the same as the level (qualification for qualification) as the standard of students nation wide. So very much work goes into ensuring this.

    Personally, I would not be prepared to grant a degree in anything involving Biblical studies without knowledge of the Biblical languages. However it is a fact that the Universities now often do this – and indeed even forty years ago it was possible to obtain a M. Theol at St Andrews with only Greek. However regrettable this is, insisting on a full degree will not restore this.

    For those who study for a qualification with Tisec while working, as indeed for those who study with other bodies while working, to achieve two years of degree level study while in a full time job is a considerable achievement. To reach degree standard would take another 18 months I suppose – and that is a decision for the church to take.

    While I would be very sympathetic to the idea of encouraging more students to undertake a full time degree at a University, the funding of such things is a decision for the denomination, not Tisec. To ensure this in the present economic climate would be expensive, and for students who already have personal commitments, not always possible. This is why most English dioceses offer part-time training. The brief for Tisec is to offer a course that those NOT taking a full-time a course can follow, together with specifically vocational study which the Universities do not provide.

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