What is in Kelvin's Head?

Last year’s predictions (2020) – how did I do?

31/12/2020

Well, thank you for asking.

Here’s what I predicted for 2020 and here’s how I did.

Scotland will not vote for Independence in 2020

Scotland didn’t.
Prediction accurate.

No progress for those hoping for Equal Marriage in the Church of England.

There was none.
Prediction accurate.

Narrow Democrat victory in American election – country as divided as ever – widespread belief that the election was rigged.

Well, there was a Democrat victory in America. It wasn’t as narrow as it initially appeared but the country is as divided as ever with widespread belief that the election was rigged.
Prediction substantially accurate.

Scottish government proposals on reforming the Gender Recognition Act go through largely as proposed in consultation document.

I’m sorry this didn’t happen and I’m sorry that trans people are at the epicentre of the latest culture war. The Scottish government’s proposals on Gender ID were pragmatic and sensible and no-one has come up with any better proposals on how a gender recognition certificate should be issued. (Statutary declaration by individual whilst criminalizing false or misleading declarations).
Prediction inaccurate.

Limited agreements at COP talks but derided as too little too late.

No COP.
Prediction inaccurate due to covid.

UK leaves the EU and is subsequently unable to agree a substantial deal.

Well, the UK did leave the EU and just about managed to agree a substantial deal though not a very good one.
Prediction mostly inaccurate.

No trade deal with the USA

No trade deal with the USA.
Prediction accurate

Yvette Cooper will become the leader of the Labour Party.

Missed this one but I note that Rosemary Hannah correctly tipped Starmer in the comments.
Prediction inaccurate.

Stock market lower at the end of the year than it is today. (FTSE 7,542.44)

FTSE at 6470.
Prediction accurate.

Increasing visible support for LGBT Roman Catholics from within the Roman Catholic Church.

This was the one that most people seemed to think bonkers. I actually had in mind something quite local which didn’t happen due to Covid but which I think might happen next year instead. However, the Holy Father came through for me – “Pope Francis backs same-sex civil unions” and in recent days we have had – “Head of German bishops, self-described conservative, calls for change”. Stuff is happening in the RC church. It is a long journey but there’s change in the air. Prediction accurate.

Overall – not bad, considering…

2020, predictions, Predictions 2020

8 responses to “The End of Civilization As We Know It”

Kimberly

13/12/2009

This is disaster. What will I do on my day off??

I may have to consider returning to America after all.

Reply
marion

13/12/2009

I worked for Border Books for 10 months Kelvin. Helped clean and stock those now empty shelves. To see the store like that is awful. I love the feel and smell of a new book, and the idea of using an electronic book fills me with horror. To browse slowly, and then to make my choice of reading material is so much better and satisfying than ordering on line, and quicker.

Reply
kelvin

13/12/2009

I suspect we must cherish our public libraries far more than we have done hitherto if we wish to retain the browsing experience.

Reply
kimberly

14/12/2009

I have tried to cherish my public library, but it is so full of computers, and the only place to read/write/ think is a round table by the door, so I had to retreat to the Beanscene instead.

For those of us who don’t live near the Mitchell, where are the good ‘local’ libraries?

Reply
Kelvin

14/12/2009

Well, I know I am spoilt by having the largest public reference library in Europe on my doorstep.

What I meant by cherishing local libraries was probably that we need to tell those who fund them what we want from them.

There is a consultation going on in England about it, and Rachel Cooke writes about it in a recent Observer.

Reply
Justin

14/12/2009

The closure of the Glasgow branch is sad news indeed. The Fort Kinnaird branch in Edinburgh has been declining for a while, but even a year or so ago Borders in Glasgow was a great bookstore.

Apparently Borders has been starved of funds over the past few years, forced to promote potboilers to make up for lack of investment. There’s some hope for good high street book stores if you look at Blackwells in Edinburgh, which I think has got even better in the last couple of years. And, further afield, Foyles in London: they refurbished recently and it’s just fantastic. Models for the future, hopefully.

Reply
kelvin

14/12/2009

I agree that Foyles’s refurbishment is a triumph. Howevrer, I still think that the idea of the big bookshop is probably going to be so rare that it will be like Wembley Stadium or Edinburgh Zoo. Of national note rather than local significance.

Reply
Rosemary Hannah

14/12/2009

The noise level in my local library is such that I cannot think at all – and I’m used to a noisy family around me. In Borders today – incredibly depressing. It was so so much better than Waterstones. But Waterstones is better than nothing. But then again, I use Glasgow University Library more than anything else.

Reply