• Review of Predictions for 2018

    On 1 January I made predictions for the coming year. Time to see how I got on.

    1 – General Election in the second half of the year.

    Well, no we didn’t and the government linger on. Not right

    2 – “…and as the polls close, our exit poll predicts that the Conservative Party is unlikely to be able to form a new government…”

    Well, the government did linger on of a fashion.  N/A

    3 – The next but one leader of the Conservative Party becomes Ruth Davidson MP.

    Too soon to tell. Not right yet.

    4 – The hipsters get bored of vinyl and discover cameras with actual, you know, film.

    In September, I happened upon three or four hipster types from Denmark in the cathedral grounds taking photographs for a fashion shoot in Belgium. They had stopped shooting for a moment…. to reload film canasters.  Right – but likely to become more common yet.

    5 – No date for a new referendum on Scottish Independence.

    No date for a new referendum and no great call for one either. Right.

    6 – No progress for LGBT affirming Anglicans in England.

    Sadly correct. Right

    7 – Progress for LGBT affirming Anglicans elsewhere, particularly Brazil.

    Stunning progress in Brazil – marriage agreed by huge majority on synod floor. (And who else saw that coming!) Right.

    8 – Increasing realisation that sexual abuse is part of church culture. #churchtoo #metoo.

    Yes – meetings happening all over the place trying to work out how to respond. Few coherent policies yet. Right.

    9 – FTSE lower at the end of 2018 than it is at the beginning. (7687)

    As I write this the FTSE is at 6728 – worst year in a decade. Right

    10 – The end of the beard.

    Those with style, manners and culture have seen the error of their ways and shaved. A few young and misguided types cling on. Completely and utterly right.

     

    Not a bad year, I think.

15 responses to “The Trump of Judgement for Liberals”

  1. Guy Avatar
    Guy

    I heard someone talking on the radio who had looked at actual voting data (wherever such people get that from). Predictors of whether someone was a Trump voter, though by no means decisive ones, were whether someone earned more than $50000, had never gone to college or had done so but dropped out, was male, and over 44 years old. But there were people in those categories who had voted for Clinton as well. Even the much spoken of Hispanic vote was not as big a predictor of voting preference as thought and there were too many women who hated Hilary Clinton for misogyny to be the overarching factor.

    The stand out predictor which went across all categories was colour, whites going for Trump, up to %58.

    This vote was an anti-Obama backlash from people who couldn’t quite forgive the fact that an African-American had been running the show for eight years, whether the racism was of the vitriolic nasty sort or the more urbane sort that says that some of the other lot are probably ok, but only as long as we don’t have to actually mix with them and they’re somewhere else, it amounts to the same thing. The analyst speaking referred to a sort of nostalgia for when whites seemed to be in overall charge of everything.

    As to our response: as far as I can see the reason American politics is so vitriolic is because Liberals and Conservatives hate each other and also want to remake the other side in their own image.

    Love the other: well very gospel, but pretty darned hard when you struggle to even like xenophobic misogynistic lgbt-haters, let alone love them!

    Love might be the attitude that those of us who call ourselves Christians have to struggle towards, but I’m less sanguine than Kelvin is on this one and the verse that keeps going through my mind is the bit in Ecclesiastes about there being a time for this a time for that.

    Sometimes conflict is inevitable and has to be fought to a finish. You can’t react to the kind of person who shouted out at Trump’s victory speech “jail Obama” on the basis of well, six of one and half a dozen of the other. And such people aren’t exactly amenable to sweet reason.

    On the other hand sometimes people have just to be left alone. Forceably trying to remake the other in your own image just antagonises.

    I think our response has to be to discern the difference between the two situations. And to redouble our efforts to make sure that a Trump can’t become Prime Minister in the UK.

  2. Eamonn Avatar

    A prophetic and timely warning, Kelvin. What Trump represents is on the way to becoming a global phenomenon. The tone of his rallies, and the chanting of mindless slogans, is all too reminiscent of Germany in the 1930s. The fact that his election has been welcomed by Marine le Pen and other far-right leaders in Europe speaks volumes.

  3. Guy Avatar
    Guy

    Something to think about: when it penetrates the general consciousness that the majority of white conservative evangelicals voted for Donald Trump, what if anything will be the fall out for Christianity as a whole?

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