• How were my Predictions last year?

    Time to check out how I did with the predictions I made on New Year’s Day 2024.

    1  General Election in UK – Labour landslide. PM – Sir Keir Starmer. (No great change in policies from the Tory government that Labour will replace).

    Yes – fulfilled in every way.

    2  US politics will continue to be dominated by Donald Trump

    Yes

    3  In the US Presidential election in November there will be victory for the Republican Party.

    Yes

    4  AI/Deepfakes have a significant effect in electoral politics.

    Not really – AI/Deepfakes are present but there’s no real evidence that they swung any particular election

    5  Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine unresolved by end of 2024.

    Alas Yes

    6  No progress for those wanting marriage equality in the Church of England.

    Alas Yes

    7  Twitter goes bust or is sold or both.

    Not quite. Twitter feels pretty wounded but still Xists.

    8  The world will be warmer in 2024 than ever before.

    Yes

    9  Another country will join Nato.

    Yes, Sweden in March.

    A new agreement is reached between the UK and Greece on the Elgin/Parthenon Marbles that opens the door for at least some of them to be displayed in Athens.

    Close but no cigar.

     

    Not a bad year – 7 direct hits with a few misses.

3 responses to “Brexit – Five First Quick Thoughts”

  1. Rosemary Hannah Avatar
    Rosemary Hannah

    Almost everybody I meet on a regular basis, except my family and one educated friend, were voting out. and that in Scotland. I am shattered but unsurprised. My partner reports that, in her office, those with a degree and under 35 all intended to vote remain, and those without and over 35 to leave.

  2. Ruth Gillett Avatar
    Ruth Gillett

    Some people I know didn’t vote at all because they were annoyed that their ‘first ever in their fairly long lives’ voting experience (Independence) didn’t go the correct way. Strangely two friends who spend half the year living in Europe (and benefit from the reciprocal healthcare arrangements) voted leave and I’m bewildered by a dear friend of 60 years who unexpectedly climbed angrily aboard the anti immigration juggernaut. I’d dared to hope (and ignore the signs online) because everyone else I knew seemed to be voting remain…

  3. Guy Whitehouse Avatar
    Guy Whitehouse

    I fear ultimately that Brexit won in part because the EU became a rather soulless bureaucracy to which people could not emotionally attach. Financial benefit does not always secure attachment on a large-scale and if enough people start to perceive themselves to suffer and not participate in those benefits then the inevitable happens.

    I fear the UK is going the same way but for different reasons. Since the 80s there has been a tendency amongst those seeking power to focus on groups and not the country as a whole; remember election night and the swingometer and the presenter saying things like “such and such an area has gone red but in order to win the Conservatives just need to win over Essex man and Worcester woman….”? Of course Labour did something similar in 1997 and in later elections.

    So any uniting sentiments have been undermined which means that the problem is no longer just with politicians but with the electorates also.

    I liked what Kelvin said in his referendum sermon, and more than ever the churches need to discover their ministry of reconciliation and think about what it means to try to offer everyone a spiritual home. It would be ironic if the church became the main place that differences could be dropped. but I have to confess I’m rather gloomy about even that looking at the way other controversial issues within the church have been dealt with.

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