What is in Kelvin's Head?

Last Year’s Predictions

31/12/2015

Each year I try to make some predictions at New Year. And each year I take a look back on Hogmanay to see how I did.

Here’s the rundown of how I did last year.

1 Those who voted YES in the Scottish Referendum will continue to behave as though they won. This may be unhelpful.
2 Those who voted NO in the Scottish Referendum will continue to behave as thought he referendum never happened. This may be unhelpful.

Well, I think I got these both right. I don’t see much sign that we’ve moved on from the referendum. Alan McManus’s magazine article was a breath of fresh air, but a rare one.

3 There will, I fear, be a Tory Prime Minister at the end of 2015.

Bang on with this one.

4 The Liberal Democrats will retain 10 – 14 seats in the House of Commons.

Well, I got the detail wrong – the Lib Dems did even worse in the General Election. When I made this prediction, most people were predicting a Lib Dem presence of 30 – 36, I think. My prediction of electoral catastrophe was just not taken seriously by those whom I know who should have taken it most seriously. I’m claiming this as a very near miss.

5 Nick Clegg will lose his seat and be Lord Clegg by the end of the year.

That’s a miss. Nick Clegg kept his seat if not his party.

6 The Labour Party will not be led by a Milliband by the end of the year.

Well I didn’t see Jeremy Corbyn coming but it was clear to me that Ed Milliband wasn’t going anywhere fast. Remember though that right up until the General Election, most of the polls predicted a hung parliament and uncertainty about who would be the PM.

7 The Church of Scotland will begin a new procedure under the barrier act to determine whether to accept ministers in same-sex partnerships who are married (ie not merely in Civil Partnerships).

Got this one bang on. Presbyteries have just voted by a narrow majority to send this back to the General Assembly for decision in May.

8 There will be legal victories for those seeking to extend Civil Partnerships to straight couples.

Well, we’ve not see as many legal victories as I expected. However, we’ve got a rather uncomfortable consultation just completed in Scotland in which the Scottish Government announced before consulting, that it didn’t want to do what a lot of people want them to do. I hope it sticks to its guns though and refuses to allow straight couples (or indeed future gay couples) Civil Partnerships.

9 Elizabeth Warren will become a household name.

Well, this one didn’t really come to pass. My fantasy of a dream Hilary/Elizabeth ticket doesn’t look like becoming a reality either.

10 (Some) straight liberals will lead the charge (such as it is) for (something less than) LGBT equality, (sometimes). Believe it or not, I’m excited by this and it is an improvement. [Remember that in 2011 I predicted that “No straight liberal in the church will feel the need to sacrifice anything at all for the gay friends they purport to support.” Things are changing a bit].

I’m claiming this one as a win. I could feel it all around me at Greenbelt but I’ve felt it in other places too. Increasingly, the things I’ve been fighting for are becoming mainstream. Deo Gratias.

11 Advances in e-learning in churches.

This one is a miss. I’ve dabbled a bit myself but there’s no real sign of denominations doing what they need to do if they are going to teach their people any better in the future than they have done in the past.

8 responses to “Finding a place to be”

Gordon

11/10/2024

I do think it’s important to remember that the sectarian persecutions of the past happened within a context that regarded itself as Christian – whether Episcopalian north of the border, or Reformed south of the border, the majority culture just saw itself as the ‘correct’ church.

Our context is of overwhelming apathy towards religion at the best, and at worst, assuming that anyone religious is a fundamentalist with a scantily concealed desire to kill infidels.

But I agree that we would be wise to trust in the Holy Spirit.

Reply
Alastair O

12/10/2024

Kelvin
I always value reading your thoughts. May I suggest you give consideration when you use the word ‘church’? While the Church of Scotlad is closing many buildings, (s)he is not closing churches!

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1. Kelvin
  
  13/10/2024
  
  I’m aware of a C of S congregation which merged with a congregation that was a union of (I think) 7 congregations a number of years ago. This union of 8 has now announced its building will close and it will unite with another one making a union of 9. There is a plan to merge this with another congregation and there are discussions ongoing about which building should be kept.
  
  You can say that all those churches are still open if you like but I’m not sure that people local to this actually do see it that way.
  
  Reply
  1. Ferdinand von Prondzynski
    
    15/10/2024
    
    Indeed. See my separate comment.
    
    Reply
  2. Alastair O
    
    26/10/2024
    
    Greyfriars Kirk in Edinburgh is a united congregation which over the years has worshipped in 17 places. Worth a visit to see the 17 leg communion table crafted by its social enterprise arm Grassmarket Community Project.
    
    Reply
Rory Gillis

13/10/2024

Hi from Nova Scotia. You mention the Canadian Church in passing. Church demographers told us recently that the last Canadian Anglican will disappear by 2040 and the update is, maybe sooner as a result of the pandemic. My take is that parties, whether ‘liberal’ ( mine) or conservative ( some one else’s) are more consequence than cause. Our current decline is tied in with the decline of religion in Canada in general. Ethnicity is also an issue. Anglicans here are as ethnic as any one else. Our ethnic cohort stopped having large families over two generations ago. Urbanization, rural decline and with it regional outmigration in historically Anglican strong areas like Atlantic Canada are part of the picture.

I think one can distinguish between the decline of the grand old institution
( Anglican Church of Canada, previously The Church of England in Canada) and the future of a communities of faith with an Anglican heritage. Pace demographics, there are just too many stories of parishes and other entities being fully alive, full of The Spirit, doing creative things, holding a place in the community.

Kevin, as your article notes, anecdotes and stories matter. They not only provide hopeful pause for reflection: they also testify to the creative perseverance of a Spirit filled people.

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1. Rory Gillis
  
  17/10/2024
  
  Fr. Kelvin, last para, my apololgy for the typo in your name.It was either auto correct or a inattentive scribal error on my part. I know several ‘Kevins’ indeed too many perhaps. lol. please fix if possible. R.G.
  
  Reply
Elaine

18/10/2024

I think people are done with man made religion but spirituality well that’s a different thing. I feel that you are correct people are drawn to love, inclusivity and holy spaces I think our church is such a space and I know it is growing. I remember Mission 21, it appalled me. Statistics and money. Surely we are beyond that. I have faith, what will be will be. But it might be different to what we think we should have or it should be. Exciting times.

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