What is in Kelvin's Head?

Predictions 2022 – How did I do?

31/12/2022

Time to see how I did with my predictions at the start of the year.

Boris Johnson will be replaced with a Prime Minister who is more competent, more right wing and more difficult to beat.

Well, if we skip lightly over the horror of Liz Truss’s premiership, I’m going to claim this one as fulfilled. Left and right designations in politics mean less as the years go on. Prediction fulfilled.

A good year for Michael Gove (who is almost invisible at the moment).

I’m claiming this one too. He’s back in government and less invisible. If you don’t agree, you probably don’t read the Daily Telegraph. Prediction fulfilled.

Church of Scotland General Assembly votes to allow same-sex couples to be married in church. More significantly, almost no-one leaves in a huff.

Exactly what happened. Prediction Fulfilled.

No progress for those seeking marriage equality in the Church of England.

Sadly. Prediction Fulfilled

US Republican Party do well at the November midterms.

Gloriously, prediction unfulfilled.

Midnight Mass will happen at St Mary’s Cathedral, Glasgow – some people will still be wearing masks but it won’t be mandatory.

Yes, I did see a few mask wearers but we were getting back to prepandemic levels of attendence and Midnight Mass was a blast. Prediction fulfilled.

Lots of people discover that cryptocurrency is not the sure thing that they thought. (Losses will disproportionately affect young people).

Oh my, yes. What a mess some people have got themselves into. Prediction fulfilled.

Nicola Sturgeon will be forced to announce a proposed date for an Independence Referendum against her better judgement.

She announed on 23 June 2022 that it would be held on 19 October 2023. (Spoiler alert – it won’t happen on 19 October 2023). Prediction fulfilled.

Lambeth Conference will take place but some people forced to participate virtually due to continued pandemic in developing world. (No new sanctions against pro-gay provinces).

Well it took place but I’m not sure whether or not there were virtual participants. However, there were no new sanctions against pro-gay provinces. Prediction largely fulfilled.

Working from home/hybrid working becomes normalised for big companies. Consequent increase in ransomware demands.

Working from home is certainly still going on and there are many big companies that are planning for it continuing in some form. (Here’s a government report about it). And yes, ransomware has increased. (Here’s a paper on it from the Chartered Institute of IT).

I’m guessing that one or two people might want to argue about whether I got this all as right as I think I did – particularly the first two, but not a bad year overall.

12 responses to “Politics Just Became More Interesting”

Eric Stoddart

26/05/2014

Good points Kelvin.
On the BBC issue it’s worth thinking about it as a long term blurring of boundaries of news and entertainment. Infotainment loves the human interest dimension – Farage and UKIP are strong characters – but can lose sight of content. Nuanced discussion of content, not just political, is deemed to be boring.
On the misperceptions of the British public around many issues the KCL and Ipsos Mori study last year ‘Perils of Perception’ is deeply worrying. There’s a summary at http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3188/Perceptions-are-not-reality-the-top-10-we-get-wrong.aspx. This runs a feedback loop within the press which reinforces misperceptions for political reasons that the public then imbibe and so on.

Matthew Parris had a good piece in The Times the other day about politicians being frightened to tell the public that they, the public that is, are wrong.

Reply
Kelvin

26/05/2014

I’ve never had a problem telling the public that they, they public, are wrong myself…

Reply
Neil Oliver

26/05/2014

Your first two points have been made today on a number of occasions, as such I have joined the Green Party. I suspect that I don’t necessarily agree with all the policies, but it feels the best fit to me. So challenge accepted, as you’re right things did just get more interesting. I’d prefer people to vote left / left of centre, but I’d at the least I hope people just voted for whatever they believed in.

Reply
Gilly Charters

27/05/2014

‘They’ve got their policies’? The Green Party certainly does have policies- I couldn’t support a party that didn’t!
There’s no way anyone could agree with everything in a manifesto but the Green Party definitely provides the ‘best fit’ for me. And I am deeply saddened that the BBC didn’t provide more even-handed coverage for a party that does have an MP.

Reply
1. Kelvin
  
  27/05/2014
  
  The trouble is, I don’t like the Green Party’s policies. On energy they seem naive, on independence I’m just not persuaded and I’ve not a clue what they think about the economy.
  
  And I need more than one word (“green”) to persuade me.
  
  Reply
Charlie Hill

27/05/2014

In south east England there was a Christian party of the ballot: The Christian People’s Alliance who polled about 15,000 votes

Reply
1. Kelvin
  
  27/05/2014
  
  I’m sorry to hear it. None in Scotland.
  
  Reply
David Kenvyn

27/05/2014

I am now wondering about a possible scenario, as follows:-

1. Scotland votes “Yes” in September.
2. Scotland opts to retain the pound as its currency.
3. Scotland opts for EU membership.
4. England votes “No” in the EU referendum. And I choose my words here carefully. Wales and Northern Ireland could vote “Yes” but if England votes to quit the EU, that settles the matter.
5. Scotland could be in the EU but without a currency that is within the EU.

What happens next? I have no idea, and it will not affect the way that anyone votes in the referendum in September. But Kelvin is right, politics have just become more interesting and “May you live in interesting times” is a Chinese curse.

Reply
Allan Ronald

27/05/2014

I feel very much the same as you do, Kelvin, especially about the need for greater involvement [though I did vote—65 year olds tend to!] and the lack of any party to which one can give an enthusiastic adherence. If the Lib Dems were more like the Liberal party of Jo Grimond, to which I belonged as a 1960s Young Liberal, they would have my support. Question is, do I want to join them now and work for change from within? I hae ma doots.

Reply
Randal Oulton

27/05/2014

People are very passionate about political ideas and topics these days; far less so than they are about parties.

I’m wondering if this is the start of the post-party era, where we should start pondering direct votes on issues, by-passing elected reps who may no longer be needed. In a hundred years, having someone vote for you on a particular issue when you can do it yourself from your phone may seem like a very expensive anachronism.

Reply
1. Kelvin
  
  27/05/2014
  
  Press 1 to re-introduce the death penalty, press 2 to oppose it, press 3 if you don’t know…
  
  Reply
2. Eric Stoddart
  
  28/05/2014
  
  Representative democracy needs all the support it can get. Direct democracy can sound attractive but is deeply problematic. Few issues can be boiled down to a binary yes or no. We elect representatives to engage in sophisticated debate and analysis because issues are complex. Just a few minutes watching a parliamentary committee at work can be salutary. Of course the quality of debate and of the representatives varies greatly but, in principle, it has to be made to work.
  The alternative is single-issue decision-making that ignores, or simply is unable to understand, the ramifications and interconnected nature of decisions.
  Politicians need our support especially when they become targets for vilification in the media. This fosters a dangerous feedback loop that favours those who have vested interests in so-called direct ‘democracy’.
  I’m not denying that some politicians have been corrupt and some are foolish. But improving the quality of our representatives is much more important than bypassing them.
  
  Reply