• Predictions 2021 – How did I do?

    Time to see how I did with my predictions at the start of this year.

    Boris Johnson will achieve his longstanding ambition to become a former Prime Minister.

    Alas, Boris Johnson did not achieve this ambition this year. But we must award him 10/10 for trying. He’ll get there in the end. Prediction not accurate

    Stock market higher at end of 2021 than at the beginning (FTSE – 6,460) but higher inflation too (most recent CPIH – 0.6%).

    Yes, the stock market is higher and so is inflation. (FTSE – 7379 and most recent CPIH – 4.6%). Prediction accurate.

    No progress for those hoping for marriage equality in the Church of England.

    Indeed, no progress at all for those hoping for marriage equality in the Church of England. Moreover, any hope is receding, made much worse by the Church in Wales opting for blessing same-sex couples rather than marrying them. Prediction accurate.

    State based hackers turn their disruptive attention to open source software. (Watch out WordPress).

    Hard to prove but there are reports suggesting this is happening and indeed may have been happening before this year. I’m claiming this as a win. Prediction accurate.

    Donald Trump will remain the centre of attention.

    He’s not gone away. He’s not been convicted of anything. He’s building his media empire. He wants to run again and has no major republican challenger. Prediction accurate

    There will be midnight mass in St Mary’s Cathedral, Glasgow next Christmas Eve. People will be wearing masks.

    Accurate in every respect. Prediction accurate.

    A rocky year for Nicola Sturgeon but the SNP will be returned triumphant to Holyrood, despite their record.

    Well it wasn’t really a rocky year for Nicola Sturgeon who is still the only show in town but the SNP did return in triumph to Holyrood despite their record. Prediction partially accurate.

    No vote on Scottish Independence this year but like it or not, constitutional change is a-coming.

    Indeed so. It has been quite a year for asking whether devolution works. Prediction accurate.

    Attempt to repeal the Human Rights Act, removing the provisions of the European Convention on Human Rights from UK law. (It is a stepping stone to restoring capital punishment – the Brexiteers are not done with us yet).

    Consultation currently underway on a plan to replace the Human Rights Act with a Bill of Rights that would distance the UK from the ECHR. Prediction sadly accurate.

    Legislation emerges in Scotland to restrict fireworks.

    The Fireworks (Scotland) Miscellaneous Amendments Regulations 2021 were brought in at the end of June restricting the times of day that fireworks can be used to between 6 pm and 11 pm, restricting the times of sale and limiting the amount that can be sold to someone at any one time. We’ll see how these restrictions have been received at about one minute past midnight tonight. Prediction accurate.

    Not a bad year overall. I’m claiming 8½ out of 10.

4 responses to “Guest Post: Alan McManus on The Feast of St Francis”

  1. Jaye Richards-Hill Avatar

    Whilst the sentiment is worthy, I think you’re being a wee bit naive here Alan. Ruth may be praying for the safe return of her sons, as I will pray for my step son when he is called up for service in the IDF next year. She might also be praying that her sons don’t encounter the devastation of the Katusha rockets fired from Gaza on an almost daily basis and have to deal with dead and maimed Israeli children. They all might pray that they’re not in the bus stations in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem when some poor misguided Arab child with a bomb strapped to their back causes devastation, death and mutilation.
    And Lesbian Rachael may have been ostracised from her family, but she can give thanks that Israel is the ONLY country in the middle east where her rights and equality is protected by law. Of course, if she was a palastinian in Gaza or the west bank, her sexuality would be criminalised.

    Your view of the activity of Israel and its army in my view is one which, if you’ll forgive my directness, is through rose tinted specs. My wife is an ex-IDF officer, and whilst there is most definitely some bad treatment of the Palastinians, it’s usually in response to many of the dangers I’ve outlined in this comment. We should be lighting candles perhaps for the Israeli government and constitution which provides free health care and education for all it’s citizens, be they Arab, Jew, or anything else, including LGBT. These are the real poor in Israel and they are protected. This is not apartheid, and to compare it to the system in South Africa under which my wife grew up is, quite frankly, offensive to most Israelis and many others.

    Sorry if this comment upsets you, but I’m sure Francis would have been apolitical in this. His concern might well have been the poor, but he might have seen that the poor are the misguided people in this world who are too quick to condem Israel from the comfort of their western armchairs…

    Jaye

  2. Alan McManus Avatar
    Alan McManus

    Well-intentioned but naive isn’t the harshest criticism a post involving this Near-Eastern politicial knife edge could have attracted, so I thank you. My mother’s maiden name is Jewish; I spent some months on a kibbutz in the 80’s; I think I was the worst student of Hebrew that St Mary’s College, St Andrews Uni, ever had; I only avoided being elected president of St Andrews Jewish student society (I was the oldest member) by declaring, “I shouldn’t be the president: I’m goy!”; I think that Eretz Yisrael is a beautiful, fascinating and deeply tragic place and I admire your commitment to primary human realtionships and share your exasperation of uninformed, unbalanced and uninvolved politics-as-entertainment.
    I also have many Muslim friends, some Western, who repeat to me that the root of the problem is the oppression of the Palestinians. Not all are uneducated fanatics.
    The following links, which could not (for technical reasons) be linked to phrases in my original post, may help to contextualise my words. I do not strive for dominance of the discourse but rather to question adherence to party lines and easy answers. You defend those you love, Jaye, as you should, and that love is a candle in a deep deep darkness. But there are other candles, across the barbed wire and beyond no-man’s land.

    http://www.lib.rochester.edu/camelot/whfraintro.htm
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/08/29/atos-paralympic-sponsors-under-fire-disabled-attitude_n_1838614.html
    http://dmv.ca.gov/pubs/vctop/d11/vc22500.htm
    http://www.asylumaid.org.uk/data/files/publications/46/Still_No_Reason_At_All.pdf
    http://beyondcompromise.com/2012/08/17/everybody-must-get-stoned/
    http://www.no2brandisrael.org/?p=324
    http://www.stophonourkillings.com/index.php?q=taxonomy/term/60
    http://muslimmatters.org/2009/07/16/islamic-jerusalem-%E2%80%9Cwe-will-drive-the-jews-into-the-sea%E2%80%9D-1-of-3/
    http://www.ranker.com/list/7-worst-capital-punishments-for-being-_illegally_-gay/joanne
    http://palestinesolidarityproject.org/2012/03/13/israeli-settlers-cut-down-150-olive-and-grape-trees-in-wad-abu-reesh/
    http://electronicintifada.net/content/demanding-justice-yousef-quiet-boy-killed-israeli-settlers/10865
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/24/opinion/not-all-israeli-citizens-are-equal.html?_r=0
    http://israelisoldiersmother.blogspot.co.uk/
    http://www.religion-online.org/showarticle.asp?title=1757
    http://artsandfaith.com/t100/jesusofmontreal.html
    http://liberatingtheology.wordpress.com/2011/10/05/theology-and-liberating-praxis-theology-as-second-act/
    http://robertpirsig.org/Intro.htm
    http://www.robertpirsig.org/
    http://inharmony.yolasite.com/
    https://www.facebook.com/events/240919052672305/#!/tentcitytheatrecompany

  3. Alastair McManus Avatar
    Alastair McManus

    I am resuming religion at age 63. I am Cof E, but now a Buddhist….My olf McM family of Antrim became C of I in around 1670s on.

    Will write more if you could reply.

    AM

    1. Alan McManus Avatar

      Hello Alastair,
      forgive my extremely tardy reply! I only looked up this post to get the date as I’ve forgotten how old my beloved dog Ben is and I got him just after writing this post (I remember thinking I should practice what I preached and he needed a home). I don’t get notifications from this site (I have RSI and I can’t keep up) but if you click on my website link there’s a Contact page.
      slán, Alan

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