What is in Kelvin's Head?

How did I do with last year’s predictions?

31/12/2025
Here’s a run down of how I did at last year’s predictions.
- Good results for Nigel Farage following the English local elections in May. Terrible results for Conservative Party.
Exactly what happened. YES
- No progress towards the marriage of same-sex couples in the Church of England
Exactly what happened. Indeed, I think things may have gone into reverse. YES
- Turbulent year for WordPress, which powers about half of the internet.
The year began with Automattic dramatically cutting its contribution to development leading to stagnation in development and much acrimony. Subsequently restored. Deep divisions remain about Gutenberg. I’m claiming this as a YES.
- 2025 will be the hottest year on record.
Final figures yet to be calibrated but all reports indicate that this, unfortunately is a YES.
- No trade deal for UK with US. Increasing talk of re-aligning economy closer to EU.
Well, there was a trade deal in May called the Economic Prosperity Deal but it doesn’t seem to much and some of the basics have already been reversed. I suppose I have to be honest and say I didn’t get this quite right so it is a NO. But…
- Ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine war but no long term solution.
Hard to assess this one. No long term solution, certainly. There have been a series of ceasefires proposed but none seems really to have been fully implemented. Partial YES.
- “Assisted Dying” aka doctor assisted suicide becomes legal in at least one of the jurisdictions of the British Isles.
I have to put this down as a NO as it completed its parliamentary journey in the Isle of Man but hasn’t received Royal Assent yet, so not technically legal.
- Turbulent year for economy but stock market higher at end of year than beginning. (FTSE currently at 8,173)
Stock market at 9,931 today and there was quite a lot of volatility in the first part of the year. So this one is a YES.
- There will be fewer Commonwealth Realms (ie countries which share the monarchy) by the end of 2025 than there are now.
This one is a NO though there has been significant progress in that direction in Jamaica and moves that way in Grenada.
- Philip Mountstephen.
Well, I was pushing Philip Mounstephen’s name as he appeared to be the only senior bishop in the C of E who actually believed the [absurd] position of the C of E bishops on same-sex relationships. But it is a NO – nothing significant to report.

So – five and a half out of ten this year. Not as good as some years. A couple of near misses.
new year, predictions. 2025

6 responses to “Referendum? On a human rights issue?”

Calum

15/07/2012

“The Roman Catholic Cardinal is not the moral arbiter of Scottish society.”

Agreed. It’s shocking that this one person is given so much time and space in the media.

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Adam

16/07/2012

And since when was SS marriage a human right?

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1. kelvin
  
  16/07/2012
  
  Any time now, Adam
  
  Reply
Claire

16/07/2012

As a Scottish Roman Catholic it pains me deeply that this man is the image that others may hold of myself. I am pro-equal marriage. Unconditional life-long love is such a rare beauty that if ANY two people want to encapsulate that in a marriage then they should be commended and celebrated, not shunned and ridiculed.

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Eric

16/07/2012

Referenda ought to be used sparingly and then only for major constitutional realignment. Calls for a referendum further endanger representative democracy in seeking to by-pass elected representatives (note: not mandated delegates). Our representatives need our support despite and because of their frailties. We depend on their good judgement more than we realise. I’m not setting them up as paragons of wisdom and virtue but arguing that a referendum on a social issue (let alone a civil or human rights issue) places minorities in the hands of majorities that may have dangerous biases.
A referendum on the death penalty, or on immigration, or on categories of welfare benefit could produce cruel results.
Representative democracy is not perfect but better than other more direct forms of democracy.
On the specific of same-sex marriage I don’t see the Cardinal’s logic. If politicians do not have a moral right to ‘redefine’ marriage in the light of natural law and God’s revealed intentions for humanity then how does a majority vote by citizens legitimate such a revision?

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Steven

16/07/2012

Article 12 ECHR enshrines the right to marry subject to national laws. Those national laws currently restrict the right so that only heterosexual unions can be recognised as such. However, this legal restriction must not unlawfully discriminate against other persons, including Gay and Lesbian folk who wish to marry. Discrimination on this basis can only be justified if there is an objective and reasonable justification. The law now permits same-sex adoption in the UK and so it seems to me legally inconceivable that it shall not now permit equal marriage.

Ergo – there is, in my view, already a legal right to equal marriage [in so far as the current restrictions are themselves unlawful].

Indeed I am surprised that a test case has not been brought to challenge the current restriction although in the mouth of potential legislative change a court would be slow to get involved.

For those who are interested in the legal aspects, a good starting point is to consider the Northern Irish case on unmarried couples and adoption, P (A Child) (Adoption: Unmarried Couples) [2008] UKHL 38.

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