New Year Predictions 2017

Here’s my New Year Predictions…

  1. Trump will become President of the USA later this month but won’t manage to survive for 4 years. (And don’t be rejoicing anyone, take a look at his VP).
  2. No significant progressive change will be proposed by the bishops of the Church of England in relation to LGBT issues.
  3. A solid majority in all houses of the Scottish Episcopal Church synod in favour of opening marriage to same-sex couples. (But I’m not predicting whether or not it will be enough to pass the legislation).
  4. SNP to lead the next administration of Glasgow City Council after the elections in May but possibly in coalition with others.
  5. Lib Dems will claim they’ve turned the corner after the local elections. Greens will continue to make very little progress in a political situation that seems almost designed for them to thrive. UKIP will do badly in Scotland. And is there another party?
  6. #Brexit will be triggered. And we will all end up the  poorer for it. Especially those already poorer.
  7. Success for the TIE campaign – I expect that they will make significant progress in getting more inclusive education in Scotland’s schools. By the end of the year I expect there will have been progress either in new Scottish Government guidelines or proposed legislation.
  8. Wikileaks-esque publication of details of membership of a large pornographic internet site and consequent sackings, suicides and divorces. (It is only a matter of time).
  9. François Fillon to win the French Presidency but Le Pen to do frighteningly well.
  10. The end of the beard. (Oh, I know I’ve predicted this before but how long can this hirsute tyranny go on? How much longer can good looking men keep their faces covered. Come along boys, enough is enough. Lather up.)


Last Year’s Predictions – how did I do?

Last year I made a number of predictions. Time to see how I did.

Following recent revelations, this will be the year that former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey finally shuts up. Expect no silly press releases on the eve of Church of England Synod. (From Carey anyway).

We’ve heard almost nothing from Carey this last year.  Indeed, we’ve heard more about Carey’s pic being removed from King’s College London than from him directly. Prediction correct.

 The Columba Declaration recently leaked to the press will not in fact be adopted unamended by both the Church of Scotland General Assembly in May and by the Church of England General Synod in February.

Alas, it went through unmodified. Shockwaves in Scotland. Probably the final blow to the organic unity model of ecumenical engagement in Scotland. Prediction incorrect.

Solid vote in favour of first reading of legislation for removal of definition of marriage from the canons of the Scottish Episcopal Church opening the way towards a final vote in 2017.

Yes – solid vote in favour at last synod. Still don’t know whether it will get through next year at the final vote but it achieved a 66% majority in all houses last year when it needed only 50%. Prediction correct

The Anglican Communion will move back towards being a fellowship of autonomous churches following the Primates’ Conference in January. Justin Welby will do the right thing for the wrong reasons. (ie he will accept the inevitable loosening of ties that stems from the global domination fantasies of his predecessors but not speak up for LGBT friendly churches).

This one depends entirely on the point of view of the onlooker. Welby has not spoken up for LGBT friendly churches, the communion is less united than ever but there will be another Lambeth Conference. I’m calling this a draw. Prediction correct and incorrect depending on one’s prejudices.

The SNP will win a landslide in the Holyrood Election. There will be UKIP representation in Holyrood for the first time.

Well, the SNP won the election with a landslide but didn’t get a majority. No UKIP representation in Holyrood. Hurrah!  Prediction largely incorrect.

The SNP will continue to work for their preferred outcome in the European Union referendum – an overall majority in the UK in favour of staying in, a massive majority in Scotland for staying in and a majority in England for leaving the EU.

Well, we can’t say whether this one was correct or not. I still think this would have suited the SNP more than any other result. However there’s no saying whether that’s what they were working for or not now. Inconclusive

The Democrats will retain the White House.

Fail! Appalling fail! Prediction incorrect.

Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour Party leader by the end of 2016 and become a little more popular within the Labour Party the longer he is there.  The Labour Party will still seem unelectable at the end of the year. No major defections along the way. (There’s nowhere to go).

I think I got this one bang on. Prediction correct.

A successful cyber terrorist attack on a major Western financial institution. (It is only a matter of time).

Hmm, when is it cyber-terrorism and when is it just plain cyber-fraud? I’m claiming this as a hit – £2.5 million stolen from Tesco bank this year and other incidents around the world. Prediction essentially correct

Amateur drone crash causing loss of life.

So far as I know this one did not come to pass but there have been some frightening near misses. Prediction incorrect.

3D printed food experiments in restaurants.

Oh yes, that happened. Prediction correct.

More major news outlets closing down the comments sections on their websites as open comments become unmanagable.

Part of a continuing trend. For example, see here. Prediction correct.


I make that roughly 7 correct and 5 incorrect. Ish. Out of 10.