• Last Year’s Predictions – how did I do?

    Last year I made a number of predictions. Time to see how I did.

    Following recent revelations, this will be the year that former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey finally shuts up. Expect no silly press releases on the eve of Church of England Synod. (From Carey anyway).

    We’ve heard almost nothing from Carey this last year.  Indeed, we’ve heard more about Carey’s pic being removed from King’s College London than from him directly. Prediction correct.

     The Columba Declaration recently leaked to the press will not in fact be adopted unamended by both the Church of Scotland General Assembly in May and by the Church of England General Synod in February.

    Alas, it went through unmodified. Shockwaves in Scotland. Probably the final blow to the organic unity model of ecumenical engagement in Scotland. Prediction incorrect.

    Solid vote in favour of first reading of legislation for removal of definition of marriage from the canons of the Scottish Episcopal Church opening the way towards a final vote in 2017.

    Yes – solid vote in favour at last synod. Still don’t know whether it will get through next year at the final vote but it achieved a 66% majority in all houses last year when it needed only 50%. Prediction correct

    The Anglican Communion will move back towards being a fellowship of autonomous churches following the Primates’ Conference in January. Justin Welby will do the right thing for the wrong reasons. (ie he will accept the inevitable loosening of ties that stems from the global domination fantasies of his predecessors but not speak up for LGBT friendly churches).

    This one depends entirely on the point of view of the onlooker. Welby has not spoken up for LGBT friendly churches, the communion is less united than ever but there will be another Lambeth Conference. I’m calling this a draw. Prediction correct and incorrect depending on one’s prejudices.

    The SNP will win a landslide in the Holyrood Election. There will be UKIP representation in Holyrood for the first time.

    Well, the SNP won the election with a landslide but didn’t get a majority. No UKIP representation in Holyrood. Hurrah!  Prediction largely incorrect.

    The SNP will continue to work for their preferred outcome in the European Union referendum – an overall majority in the UK in favour of staying in, a massive majority in Scotland for staying in and a majority in England for leaving the EU.

    Well, we can’t say whether this one was correct or not. I still think this would have suited the SNP more than any other result. However there’s no saying whether that’s what they were working for or not now. Inconclusive

    The Democrats will retain the White House.

    Fail! Appalling fail! Prediction incorrect.

    Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour Party leader by the end of 2016 and become a little more popular within the Labour Party the longer he is there.  The Labour Party will still seem unelectable at the end of the year. No major defections along the way. (There’s nowhere to go).

    I think I got this one bang on. Prediction correct.

    A successful cyber terrorist attack on a major Western financial institution. (It is only a matter of time).

    Hmm, when is it cyber-terrorism and when is it just plain cyber-fraud? I’m claiming this as a hit – £2.5 million stolen from Tesco bank this year and other incidents around the world. Prediction essentially correct

    Amateur drone crash causing loss of life.

    So far as I know this one did not come to pass but there have been some frightening near misses. Prediction incorrect.

    3D printed food experiments in restaurants.

    Oh yes, that happened. Prediction correct.

    More major news outlets closing down the comments sections on their websites as open comments become unmanagable.

    Part of a continuing trend. For example, see here. Prediction correct.

     

    I make that roughly 7 correct and 5 incorrect. Ish. Out of 10.

5 responses to “Five Thoughts On Losing Elections (and a referendum)”

  1. Meg Rosenfeld Avatar
    Meg Rosenfeld

    Thank you; this was a good and helpful piece to read on a day when, in all likelihood, those of us in the USA who have been endeavoring to restore justice and truth to our Presidency are going to be informed that we’ve failed.

  2. Helen Dean Avatar
    Helen Dean

    Great message. We also need people who are prepared to lose for the right reasons even if they never win.

  3. Jackie Heatlie Avatar
    Jackie Heatlie

    Truly, huge common sense in this. Never let go of ‘Radical Hope’!

  4. Marie Craig Avatar
    Marie Craig

    I second that!

  5. Rosemary Hannah Avatar
    Rosemary Hannah

    Yes but. The rain, it raineth every day/upon the just and unjust fella/ but it raineth more upon the just/for the unjust hath the just’s umbrella. It is hugely much easier to win if you feel free to say what you know to be
    popular. If you feel free to discount the complex for the always simple. I know this because over the years I have tried to explain, variously, that a nation’s economy does not work in the exact same way as a household budget, and that trade agreements between countries are not as simple as selling goods at a church sale of work. Or, to put it another way, the huge medical success of the last fifty (plus) years has been vaccination. A short discomfort, a huge level of success. That has not prevented the anti vaccine lobby having huge success in persuading people that an exceptionally safe procedure is seriously dangerous. And at least some of the pro vaccine propaganda has been slick and professional (witness the latest row on TicTok)

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