What is in Kelvin's Head?

Last year’s predictions (2020) – how did I do?

31/12/2020

Well, thank you for asking.

Here’s what I predicted for 2020 and here’s how I did.

Scotland will not vote for Independence in 2020

Scotland didn’t.
Prediction accurate.

No progress for those hoping for Equal Marriage in the Church of England.

There was none.
Prediction accurate.

Narrow Democrat victory in American election – country as divided as ever – widespread belief that the election was rigged.

Well, there was a Democrat victory in America. It wasn’t as narrow as it initially appeared but the country is as divided as ever with widespread belief that the election was rigged.
Prediction substantially accurate.

Scottish government proposals on reforming the Gender Recognition Act go through largely as proposed in consultation document.

I’m sorry this didn’t happen and I’m sorry that trans people are at the epicentre of the latest culture war. The Scottish government’s proposals on Gender ID were pragmatic and sensible and no-one has come up with any better proposals on how a gender recognition certificate should be issued. (Statutary declaration by individual whilst criminalizing false or misleading declarations).
Prediction inaccurate.

Limited agreements at COP talks but derided as too little too late.

No COP.
Prediction inaccurate due to covid.

UK leaves the EU and is subsequently unable to agree a substantial deal.

Well, the UK did leave the EU and just about managed to agree a substantial deal though not a very good one.
Prediction mostly inaccurate.

No trade deal with the USA

No trade deal with the USA.
Prediction accurate

Yvette Cooper will become the leader of the Labour Party.

Missed this one but I note that Rosemary Hannah correctly tipped Starmer in the comments.
Prediction inaccurate.

Stock market lower at the end of the year than it is today. (FTSE 7,542.44)

FTSE at 6470.
Prediction accurate.

Increasing visible support for LGBT Roman Catholics from within the Roman Catholic Church.

This was the one that most people seemed to think bonkers. I actually had in mind something quite local which didn’t happen due to Covid but which I think might happen next year instead. However, the Holy Father came through for me – “Pope Francis backs same-sex civil unions” and in recent days we have had – “Head of German bishops, self-described conservative, calls for change”. Stuff is happening in the RC church. It is a long journey but there’s change in the air. Prediction accurate.

Overall – not bad, considering…

2020, predictions, Predictions 2020

8 responses to “Bin Ladin”

Hermano David | Brother Dahâ€¢veed

02/05/2011

I agree with him entirely.

Then I think my friend that you join him in a conclusion that at this moment cannot be substantiated by fact. There is no evidence that bin Laden was executed. He died in a fire fight when the team tasked with his capture tried to do so. To claim more than the facts currently state is to jump to a conclusion based in personal prejudice.

Aside from that one discrepancy, I also agree with much of what he said.

Reply
Agatha

02/05/2011

It did occur to me that the UK does public rejoicing (see Friday) better than the US (see this morning).

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Rosemary Hannah

03/05/2011

We have no room for complacency – remember ‘Gotcha’ in the Falklands war???

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1. kelvin
  
  04/05/2011
  
  Yes, that was vulgar too.
  
  Reply
David

04/05/2011

Irrespective of the terrible atrocities masterminded by individuals such as Osama Bin-Laden…and…regardless of the improbable scenario of his being captured alive and put on trial, the rejoicing that followed his death was both tacky and tactless. Comments (albeit by family members of 9/11 victims) alluding to …”God placing him in Hell to rot for eternity…” similarly did nobody any favours. If anything, the backlash from extremists eager to avenge his death (martyrdom?) will now cost further innocent lives. The phrase that jumps to mind is: ‘least said soonest mended…’

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ryan

04/05/2011

I’m not sure that pacifist prooftexting is any lbetter than the other kinds. It’s surely morally permissable to celebrate the death of a legitimate, significant military target. And much of the “fanning the flames” rhetoric is inane – people can argue over whether nominally Islamic terrorism can be appeased , but the idea of Al-Queda dialing back their actions or reforming their ethos because (say) the world didn’t overly celebrate killing Bin Laden is ridiculous. Wouldn’t capturing him alive and forcing him to endure infidel courts be even more provocative than a martyr’s bullet and burial at sea?

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1. kelvin
  
  04/05/2011
  
  I don’t think I like the idea of celebrating the death of anyone, Ryan.
  
  That’s the kind of thing we find too often in the Bible, isn’t it? And it is vulgar there too.
  
  I don’t like lynch mob mentality no matter who is on the receiving end.
  
  Reply
ryan

04/05/2011

Indeed – I agree that the “get it up ye!” response very much does not represent humankind at its best. But not celebrating *anyone’s* death is quite different, to me, to the most popular current arguments that largely emphasise that Bin Ladin personally is an inappropriate figure for Sic Semper Tyrannis triumphalism.

I found the Vatican’s reaction interesting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_death_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Europe

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