• Last Year’s Predictions – how did I do?

    Last year I made a number of predictions. Time to see how I did.

    Following recent revelations, this will be the year that former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey finally shuts up. Expect no silly press releases on the eve of Church of England Synod. (From Carey anyway).

    We’ve heard almost nothing from Carey this last year.  Indeed, we’ve heard more about Carey’s pic being removed from King’s College London than from him directly. Prediction correct.

     The Columba Declaration recently leaked to the press will not in fact be adopted unamended by both the Church of Scotland General Assembly in May and by the Church of England General Synod in February.

    Alas, it went through unmodified. Shockwaves in Scotland. Probably the final blow to the organic unity model of ecumenical engagement in Scotland. Prediction incorrect.

    Solid vote in favour of first reading of legislation for removal of definition of marriage from the canons of the Scottish Episcopal Church opening the way towards a final vote in 2017.

    Yes – solid vote in favour at last synod. Still don’t know whether it will get through next year at the final vote but it achieved a 66% majority in all houses last year when it needed only 50%. Prediction correct

    The Anglican Communion will move back towards being a fellowship of autonomous churches following the Primates’ Conference in January. Justin Welby will do the right thing for the wrong reasons. (ie he will accept the inevitable loosening of ties that stems from the global domination fantasies of his predecessors but not speak up for LGBT friendly churches).

    This one depends entirely on the point of view of the onlooker. Welby has not spoken up for LGBT friendly churches, the communion is less united than ever but there will be another Lambeth Conference. I’m calling this a draw. Prediction correct and incorrect depending on one’s prejudices.

    The SNP will win a landslide in the Holyrood Election. There will be UKIP representation in Holyrood for the first time.

    Well, the SNP won the election with a landslide but didn’t get a majority. No UKIP representation in Holyrood. Hurrah!  Prediction largely incorrect.

    The SNP will continue to work for their preferred outcome in the European Union referendum – an overall majority in the UK in favour of staying in, a massive majority in Scotland for staying in and a majority in England for leaving the EU.

    Well, we can’t say whether this one was correct or not. I still think this would have suited the SNP more than any other result. However there’s no saying whether that’s what they were working for or not now. Inconclusive

    The Democrats will retain the White House.

    Fail! Appalling fail! Prediction incorrect.

    Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour Party leader by the end of 2016 and become a little more popular within the Labour Party the longer he is there.  The Labour Party will still seem unelectable at the end of the year. No major defections along the way. (There’s nowhere to go).

    I think I got this one bang on. Prediction correct.

    A successful cyber terrorist attack on a major Western financial institution. (It is only a matter of time).

    Hmm, when is it cyber-terrorism and when is it just plain cyber-fraud? I’m claiming this as a hit – £2.5 million stolen from Tesco bank this year and other incidents around the world. Prediction essentially correct

    Amateur drone crash causing loss of life.

    So far as I know this one did not come to pass but there have been some frightening near misses. Prediction incorrect.

    3D printed food experiments in restaurants.

    Oh yes, that happened. Prediction correct.

    More major news outlets closing down the comments sections on their websites as open comments become unmanagable.

    Part of a continuing trend. For example, see here. Prediction correct.

     

    I make that roughly 7 correct and 5 incorrect. Ish. Out of 10.

7 responses to “Newsnight Scotland”

  1. ryan Avatar
    ryan

    Great stuff! Compares favourably with Fr.Gadgetvicar’s Holy Week appearance a few years back although I’m not sure if, personally, I’d rank it up there with Italian Vanity Fair 😉

    Good to see the LGBT Network and Stonewall too – and encouraging that, unlike what would have happened a mere five or six years ago, the BBC didn’t feel the need to rope in some spokesman for a homophobic lobby in the interests of ‘balance’.

    1. kelvin Avatar

      Thanks Ryan

      On your last point, I think its interesting that in those five or six years, the opinion polls have been overturned. (That’s what John Curtice was telling us). The BBC can deal differently with the issue now because its not just a hypothetical issue that holy people are arguing about but a mainstream issue that the majority want but which politicians are wary of.

      I took the view a few years ago that campaigning for these issues was more fruitful within society generally rather than simply going over the same ground again and again in the church. I’m proud to be a tiny part in the process that has brought about that change in opinion. That’s a process that is now bearing fruit. The end of the process is equality and justice for all inside and outside the church.

      There are still debates to be had in the media where a pro/anti debate is what they are looking for and the balance argument comes into play. Indeed, I’ve turned down a request to do just such a media debate this week. I don’t think it takes people very far. Incidently, that was my view 6 years ago when I turned down the chance to debate with Fr Gadgetvicar on Newsnight during Holy Week.

  2. SomeRandomBint Avatar

    I very much enjoyed your discussion last night – especially when you re-iterated the fact that being against homosexuality ISN’T the standard Christian view of the matter. I’ve been told I’m not a true believer because I refuse to see the harm in others being in relationships with others of the same sex. I also don’t see the validity of the argument that it’s the thin end of the wedge, and opens churches to the possibility of legal action if they refuse to perform these ceremonies. I don’t see the difference between this choice, and the choice of celebrates as to whether they perform ceremonies of divorcees. There’s much talking still to be done on the issue, but I wanted to thank you for presenting such a measured view of the opinions of those of us who are Christians AND inclusive of all sorts of people.

  3. David McCarthy Avatar
    David McCarthy

    Kelvin was standing as a candidate in the election when Newsnight called me in 2005 – as it happens I was at his house drinking tea. They were very surprised that we were being quite so convivial.

    I felt it a pity that an another point of view was not represented the other night – it was hardly a discussion, more a presentation of one side’s opinions.

  4. kelvin Avatar

    Sides? When did we begin to have sides?

  5. ryan Avatar
    ryan

    ”If you are not with me, you are my enemy!” as Darth Vader and evangelical posterboy George W Bush are fond of remarking 😉

    Also , even you, David, say you are in favour of civil partnerships, a view shared by many conservatives. So despite the presence of ‘Christian’ Institute lying bigots, they are largely a loud insignificant minority (even, happily, in your congregation!) and not the legitimate ‘opposing point off view’ . Curious (or not so much) that the BBC had stephen green on in the past, but never felt the need to have antisemitic, racist or sexist speakers to provide ‘balance’ on certain issues.

  6. Sammi del brocco Avatar
    Sammi del brocco

    Really enjoyed watching that, and thankyou for standing up. I am gay and have been with my partner for 7 years and to me civil parnership is not a marriage we should be able to get married just like everyone else. as for me marriage is all about committing,loving and spending the rest of your life with some one you love regardless of gender, are we all not human beings and supposedly have human rights? Once again thankyou very enjoyable viewing.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Previous Posts

  • Sermon – The Proud Young Man

    I was preaching today for the first time in about six weeks and had a lot of fun doing so. You can hear what I had to say here or read it below. There is something terribly tricky about young men who get excited about religion. I remember a number of years ago. I was…

  • Coming Out as Congregation

    Today is a day that is sometimes known as National Coming Out Day. (The nation originally was the USA, I think, but this one has spread a bit around the world and still keeps the same name). Rather than write anything personal, this time I think it is worth noting that institutions need to come…

  • Top 10 Best Questions To Ask A Local Person When Travelling

    1 – Where can I find the most spiritual place in the city. 2 – What is the taste of the city and where can I get some? 3 – What’s the best place in town that visitors never go to? 4 – Where would you go to get the definitive photograph of the city?…

  • George C and Ann W

    Sometimes one’s twitter feed appears to simply light up with activity. It did so for me as countless people that I know posted their instant reactions to the things that George Carey and Ann Widdecombe said at a meeting held to co-incide with the Tory Party Conference, which was intended to rally the anti-same-sex marriage…