• Last year’s predictions (2020) – how did I do?

    Well, thank you for asking.

    Here’s what I predicted for 2020 and here’s how I did.

    Scotland will not vote for Independence in 2020

    Scotland didn’t.
    Prediction accurate.

    No progress for those hoping for Equal Marriage in the Church of England.

    There was none.
    Prediction accurate.

    Narrow Democrat victory in American election – country as divided as ever – widespread belief that the election was rigged.

    Well, there was a Democrat victory in America. It wasn’t as narrow as it initially appeared but the country is as divided as ever with widespread belief that the election was rigged.
    Prediction substantially accurate.

    Scottish government proposals on reforming the Gender Recognition Act go through largely as proposed in consultation document.

    I’m sorry this didn’t happen and I’m sorry that trans people are at the epicentre of the latest culture war. The Scottish government’s proposals on Gender ID were pragmatic and sensible and no-one has come up with any better proposals on how a gender recognition certificate should be issued. (Statutary declaration by individual whilst criminalizing false or misleading declarations).
    Prediction inaccurate.

    Limited agreements at COP talks but derided as too little too late.

    No COP.
    Prediction inaccurate due to covid.

    UK leaves the EU and is subsequently unable to agree a substantial deal.

    Well, the UK did leave the EU and just about managed to agree a substantial deal though not a very good one.
    Prediction mostly inaccurate.

    No trade deal with the USA

    No trade deal with the USA.
    Prediction accurate

    Yvette Cooper will become the leader of the Labour Party.

    Missed this one but I note that Rosemary Hannah correctly tipped Starmer in the comments.
    Prediction inaccurate.

    Stock market lower at the end of the year than it is today. (FTSE 7,542.44)

    FTSE at 6470.
    Prediction accurate.

    Increasing visible support for LGBT Roman Catholics from within the Roman Catholic Church.

    This was the one that most people seemed to think bonkers. I actually had in mind something quite local which didn’t happen due to Covid but which I think might happen next year instead. However, the Holy Father came through for me – “Pope Francis backs same-sex civil unions” and in recent days we have had – “Head of German bishops, self-described conservative, calls for change”. Stuff is happening in the RC church. It is a long journey but there’s change in the air. Prediction accurate.

    Overall – not bad, considering…

5 responses to “To Castle Douglas”

  1. Stewart Avatar

    With out looking at a map I can think of three:

    Belfast;
    The Cathedral of The Isles, Millport; and
    Carlisle.

    I am not sure if there are others, the next two which are probably further than Glasgow are Newcastle and St Mary’s Edinburgh

    1. kelvin Avatar

      No, I don’t think so, Stewart. Partly right and partly wrong.

  2. Andrew Swift Avatar
    Andrew Swift

    Greetings from Cowal & Bute.

    Carlisle Cathedral must be closest to Castle Douglas.

    I suspect that St German in Peel, diocese of Sodor & Man, is next closest as the seagull flies – the radio reception from the Isle of Man is extraordinarily clear down there.

    Cathedral of the Isles on Great Cumbrae and Glasgow – pretty similar I would have thought, Calmac notwithstanding. Your poor horse would need waterwings to get over there, and your gaiters would have to fully waterproof.

    1. kelvin Avatar

      I’ve travelled from the Isle of Man to Kirkcudbright, but in a yacht. Without the horse.

  3. Beth Avatar
    Beth

    As the crow flies, I suspect that both Newcastle and Durham are closer than Glasgow. Of course, in practical terms, the Irish Sea does rather get in the way. Having spent four weeks living somewhere that is not quite so far south as Castle Douglas and yet still does not get BBC Radio Scotland, this wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

    St Mary’s is closer than the Cathedral of the Isles, but only by about a mile and a half.

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