• Looking back at last year’s predictions

    Time to have a look back at the predictions I made at New Year last year.

    The Diocese of Edinburgh will have a new bishop by this time next year. (There is currently an Episcopal vacancy). However, they will have been unable to select a bishop from the first list and will end up chosing a bishop from a new short list prepared by a second preparatory committee.

    I got this one wrong – the Diocese of Edinburgh chose someone from the first list.

    The Scottish Episcopal Church will vote in principle against taking a path that would lead to the Anglican Covenant being adopted in Scotland, whilst also affirming that it regards the Communion as important and life-giving. The vote will be closer than people think.

    I got this one mostly right. The SEC did precisely what I expected it to do except that it was not a close vote at all, it was overwhelming.

    The Scottish Government (as it really will be by then) will still not have brought in marriage for same-sex couples but by this time next year we will know how they propose to do it. I think that they will allow such marriages to be in a religious context but fear that this will only be for religious denominations who opt in. This will lead to trouble in churches like the Scottish Episcopal Church. Those who completed the Government consultation on behalf of the church will rue the day they completed the response. (“We should beware of what we ask for in future” will be muttered below several mitres).

    I don’t think I was far out with this one. The muttering in Scotland is still to be heard out loud. It can already be heard quite loudly from the Church in Wales.

    There will be further significant losses for the Liberal Democrats who will face a wipe-out in local elections north of the border. The message from party leaders will be that we need to keep on with current policies, times were bound to be hard, it was always going to be difficult, government is tricky but it will all be worth it in the end. Activists will pour scorn in private and increasingly in public. The country will refuse to be fooled (this time).

    I wasn’t far off.

    Labour will lose control of Glasgow City Council but Obama will retain the White House though America will seem more divided than ever. We might hope that he governs more bravely if he does get four more years.

    Half right – Labour didn’t lose control of Glasgow but Obama did retain the White House. America certainly seems divided.

    At least one Liberal Democrat MP will cross the floor and join the Labour party.

    I don’t think this has happened thought there has been talk.

    At least one gay Anglican bishop in the UK will be outed. (And if the Telegraph decide to do to the Church of England’s dirty linen what it did to the MP’s expenses, there will be a great deal of wailing and gnashing of teeth).

    I don’t think this has happened but, my goodness, there has been a lot of talk!

    The Archbishop of Canterbury will resign and take up an Academic post. His successor will not come from York, nor from the North-West, nor from the capital (too many tiaras to carry and too damaged by the Occupy movement), nor from Bradford, nor from anywhere outside England (made that mistake last time). No, the new ABC will come not from the North, not from the West, not from the South but from the East.

    Well, the ABC did resign in favour of an academic post. His successor was a surprise. I was hinting at the Bishop of Norwich who was certainly much talked about in the latter stages but I never saw Justin Welby coming through. Indeed, a year ago, I would have been likely to suggest to anyone making that prediction that such an appointment would indicate a surprising lack of confidence in the current leadership of the Church of England.

    Increasing pressure will be put on Muslim and Jewish communities over the way animals are slaughtered. This one is a bit out of left field, but I think this might take off. Activists from the right (anti-immigration) and the left (animal welfare) and also single issue animal-rights people and secularists could all push this and push it together. Those wanting to defend such religious customs ought to get their arguments in order. I’m not convinced that they will win either and won’t find much support from their liberal Christian friends this time.

    This one has not taken off as an issue but it simmers, I think. May still bubble up.

    The UK government will re-introduce fox-hunting with hounds as an antidote to the dire economic circumstances.

    Again, no action but plenty of talk, particularly on recent days.

    More UK riots.

    I think I got this blessedly wrong.

    There will be further Evangelical splinters over gay rights.

    Again, this is happening but I expect it will become increasingly public in the coming months.

9 responses to “RSA Animations”

  1. annie t Avatar
    annie t

    Fascinating stuff; like watching a (very) animated Paulo Freire! Loved the insight ‘collaboration is the stuff of growth’. Interesting implications for a congregational paradigm for theological education. Thanks Kelvin.

  2. kelvin Avatar

    Yes – I was also reminded of my synod question about TISEC, which I still don’t think I’ve received an adequate answer to, which was something like this: “Is learning through TISEC driven by normalised marking or learning outcomes?”

  3. Kimberly Avatar

    presumably neither, but by the grace of God?

    (‘normal’, ‘outcomes’, and ‘TISEC’ all in the same sentence could lead to much fun. But I suspect I’d head down the via negativa again.)

    1. kelvin Avatar

      The answer that I got was “both” though I’ve never believed that can be possible. I do believe that TISEC at one time or another took on the trappings of each of those learning models, but that is not the same thing at all.

  4. Rosemary Hannah Avatar
    Rosemary Hannah

    Can I gently suggest that the Tisec you love to hate has over the years changes significantly?

  5. kelvin Avatar

    TISEC has always claimed to be changing – in that way it always is the same.

    I do accept that things have changed but have no way of knowing whether they have changed for the better. I still know people whom it appears to suit and I still know people who get distressed by what is done to them within it. In that respect at least, again, it remains the same.

    I’ve said before now that one of the reasons that TISEC is something that still presents unresolved issues for some of us who went through it is that there was never any public accountability within the church over what was done to us. No-one was ever held responsible and even though TISEC itself went through several reviews, the reasons for those reviews being carried out were never transparent.

    I’d still be happy to receive a coherent answer to the question. Incidentally, when I was in TISEC, the answer was clear – it was driven by learning goals and outcomes.

    I was at the General Synod where we voted for TISEC to cease to be a teaching institution. That was a pretty strong decision and one which was enthusiastically celebrated by some. (I went to the celebratory lunch afterwards and some folk came up from England for it). That does make it hard to understand what has happened subsequently.

  6. Rosemary Hannah Avatar
    Rosemary Hannah

    More than it would be appropriate for me as a staff member to answer to, and more than I am the most appropriate person to answer to, educational theory not being my speciality. However, FWIW I can answer to the fact that normalised marking is firmly in place, and that our external examiner is more than happy with the standards our students achieve. Beyond doubt all those who get a diploma from us have achieved the educational equivalent of the first two years of University education.

  7. kelvin Avatar

    Well, this isn’t comparing like with like as the current external examiner acts for an institution (albeit one which may have a financial interest) that had nothing to do with TISEC when I was in it, however, I can say that the external reports on TISEC were always astonishingly good.

    All the more astonishing for those of us who were in TISEC at the time I was, actually.

    It would be interesting to compare the quantifiable academic achievements of Scottish ordinands over time. I’ve a notion that two years of university study falls short of the standards for ordinands which the General Synod was hoping for when it last voted on a report about TISEC.

  8. Rosemary Hannah Avatar
    Rosemary Hannah

    The current external examiner is, it is true, employed; however he is not a member of the qualifying institution. He is a member of another independent academic institution, thereby bringing to his examination direct knowledge of at least three bodies (theirs, ours and his as it were). The work of our students is scrutinised by two markers at Tisec, and each piece of work scrutinised by the external examiner who checks it is achieving the same standards as YSJ. The over-all standard of YSJ is likewise scrutinised to ensure it too is achieving work of the same standard for the same level as other Universities.

    The question of whether standards nationally have risen or fallen is a different question, and harder to ascertain. We may indeed have our own different opinions. But I think it beyond doubt that the general level of the work of Tisec students is the same as the level (qualification for qualification) as the standard of students nation wide. So very much work goes into ensuring this.

    Personally, I would not be prepared to grant a degree in anything involving Biblical studies without knowledge of the Biblical languages. However it is a fact that the Universities now often do this – and indeed even forty years ago it was possible to obtain a M. Theol at St Andrews with only Greek. However regrettable this is, insisting on a full degree will not restore this.

    For those who study for a qualification with Tisec while working, as indeed for those who study with other bodies while working, to achieve two years of degree level study while in a full time job is a considerable achievement. To reach degree standard would take another 18 months I suppose – and that is a decision for the church to take.

    While I would be very sympathetic to the idea of encouraging more students to undertake a full time degree at a University, the funding of such things is a decision for the denomination, not Tisec. To ensure this in the present economic climate would be expensive, and for students who already have personal commitments, not always possible. This is why most English dioceses offer part-time training. The brief for Tisec is to offer a course that those NOT taking a full-time a course can follow, together with specifically vocational study which the Universities do not provide.

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