What is in Kelvin's Head?

Looking back at last year’s predictions

31/12/2012

Time to have a look back at the predictions I made at New Year last year.

The Diocese of Edinburgh will have a new bishop by this time next year. (There is currently an Episcopal vacancy). However, they will have been unable to select a bishop from the first list and will end up chosing a bishop from a new short list prepared by a second preparatory committee.

I got this one wrong – the Diocese of Edinburgh chose someone from the first list.

The Scottish Episcopal Church will vote in principle against taking a path that would lead to the Anglican Covenant being adopted in Scotland, whilst also affirming that it regards the Communion as important and life-giving. The vote will be closer than people think.

I got this one mostly right. The SEC did precisely what I expected it to do except that it was not a close vote at all, it was overwhelming.

The Scottish Government (as it really will be by then) will still not have brought in marriage for same-sex couples but by this time next year we will know how they propose to do it. I think that they will allow such marriages to be in a religious context but fear that this will only be for religious denominations who opt in. This will lead to trouble in churches like the Scottish Episcopal Church. Those who completed the Government consultation on behalf of the church will rue the day they completed the response. (â€œWe should beware of what we ask for in futureâ€ will be muttered below several mitres).

I don’t think I was far out with this one. The muttering in Scotland is still to be heard out loud. It can already be heard quite loudly from the Church in Wales.

There will be further significant losses for the Liberal Democrats who will face a wipe-out in local elections north of the border. The message from party leaders will be that we need to keep on with current policies, times were bound to be hard, it was always going to be difficult, government is tricky but it will all be worth it in the end. Activists will pour scorn in private and increasingly in public. The country will refuse to be fooled (this time).

I wasn’t far off.

Labour will lose control of Glasgow City Council but Obama will retain the White House though America will seem more divided than ever. We might hope that he governs more bravely if he does get four more years.

Half right – Labour didn’t lose control of Glasgow but Obama did retain the White House. America certainly seems divided.

At least one Liberal Democrat MP will cross the floor and join the Labour party.

I don’t think this has happened thought there has been talk.

At least one gay Anglican bishop in the UK will be outed. (And if the Telegraph decide to do to the Church of Englandâ€™s dirty linen what it did to the MPâ€™s expenses, there will be a great deal of wailing and gnashing of teeth).

I don’t think this has happened but, my goodness, there has been a lot of talk!

The Archbishop of Canterbury will resign and take up an Academic post. His successor will not come from York, nor from the North-West, nor from the capital (too many tiaras to carry and too damaged by the Occupy movement), nor from Bradford, nor from anywhere outside England (made that mistake last time). No, the new ABC will come not from the North, not from the West, not from the South but from the East.

Well, the ABC did resign in favour of an academic post. His successor was a surprise. I was hinting at the Bishop of Norwich who was certainly much talked about in the latter stages but I never saw Justin Welby coming through. Indeed, a year ago, I would have been likely to suggest to anyone making that prediction that such an appointment would indicate a surprising lack of confidence in the current leadership of the Church of England.

Increasing pressure will be put on Muslim and Jewish communities over the way animals are slaughtered. This one is a bit out of left field, but I think this might take off. Activists from the right (anti-immigration) and the left (animal welfare) and also single issue animal-rights people and secularists could all push this and push it together. Those wanting to defend such religious customs ought to get their arguments in order. Iâ€™m not convinced that they will win either and wonâ€™t find much support from their liberal Christian friends this time.

This one has not taken off as an issue but it simmers, I think. May still bubble up.

The UK government will re-introduce fox-hunting with hounds as an antidote to the dire economic circumstances.

Again, no action but plenty of talk, particularly on recent days.

More UK riots.

I think I got this blessedly wrong.

There will be further Evangelical splinters over gay rights.

Again, this is happening but I expect it will become increasingly public in the coming months.

7 responses to “Whither the Kirk?”

Pausing Place

25/08/2010

I missed last night’s programme, but I thought your comments were interesting.

In a sense, perhaps it’s unsurprising if the SEC is inwardly more positive about itself than the CofS. My take is that in the recent past, at least, the SEC started from a lower common denominator, not being the “local” church in the same way as the Kirk, and so it doesn’t have to contend with others saying of it “look how the mighty have fallen” in quite the same way.

As to the health of the Kirk (and the SEC for that matter), I think we need to reflect on our self-perception and to consider carefully the points and places in which a dying church (congregation or denomination) should be allowed to die gracefully, and the ways in which we might see new life emerge from the rubble.

As a young(ish!), relatively new Christian I have seen examples of (both urban and rural) SEC and Kirk congregations where there are few signs of new growth, little to draw in younger (under 50 year olds, to pick a random-ish number) new folk, and much to sustain negative preconceptions of church as boring, irrelevant and so forth.

We as a faith community need to get much better at stepping up to the mark in our creativity and engagement with our society. The sad truth is that most young adults do not know and have not heard about Jesus Christ, and unless we engage with them in ways culturally relevant to them, and which do not presuppose previous knowledge (too often taken for granted) they never will.

It troubles me, but I do think it’s true to say that in the SEC and in the Kirk we have a church sustained by the traditions and cultural reference points taught to a previous generation. Culture has shifted radically, with the result that the same will not be able to be said in 20 years time.

Our challenge is clear. Whether the Kirk and the SEC can step up to the mark to address what it means to live out the Great Commission in the 21st century is less so.

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Cal

25/08/2010

I didn’t really understand who this programme was aimed at, or even what its aim was.

Yes, numbers have fallen, but perhaps the small number of people who remain are there because they actually want to be, not because it’s the done thing on a Sunday morning.

And personally, I rather like the idea of a church “sustained by traditions”. Clearly the church has to be relevant to modern society, but in abandoning the traditions of worship then you lose the centre of why the church exists in the first place.

There was something very Presbyterian about the programme with its “we’re doomed” mentality. I find the SEC generally more positive in outlook.

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John

25/08/2010

The only book the presenter seemed to have used in his research was ‘The Death of Christian Britain: Understanding Secularisation 1800-2000’ By Callum G Brown – indeed Callum Brown was one of the speakers. The thesis of this well argued sociological study is that “quite suddenly in 1963 something very profound ruptured the character of the nation and its people sending organised Christianity on a downward spiral to the margins of social significanceâ€. That something he identifies as new media, new gender roles and a moral revolution which has dramatically ended peopleâ€™s conception that they lived Christian lives.â€ It could be said to have happened as â€œsex beganâ€ between the end of the Chatterly ban and the Beatles first LP as the poet Philip Larkin so famously put it.”
To balance this statistical decline the programme flagged up some of the “church without walls ” iniatives in a lame sort of way. All in all a most unsatisfactory programme that only told half the story.

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Kenny

25/08/2010

Good crit Kelvin. My reflection at the end of the programme was, “Lord, we visited this stuff over 30 years ago, and have come out of it stronger and better Church in the SEC.” Hopefully, we stopped longing for ‘the good old days’ a long time ago!

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MartinRitchie

26/08/2010

I thinking “Pausing Place” makes a good point about needing to creatively engage with society. From my own experience of working with a CofS congregation, this creative engagement is a weak spot for many.

As a counterpoint to the programme, interesting to note in the latest “Life and Work” a very positive article about a growing CofS congregation in Stornoway – and I mean really growing! So not all doom and gloom, and I’m sure there are many more examples of bright spots, just as there are in the SEC!

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Graham Vahey

28/08/2010

If the C of S disappeared completely we would be at a loss. During the dark and bleak years of Thatcher’s reign she refused to visit Scotland for 5 years. When she did she expressed shock that we had Royal Regalia and ordered it to be removed immediately for safe-keeping to England. Her ‘Sermon on the Mound’ is now historical for its condescension to the Scots. She was none too pleased to be handed two reports on poverty in Scotland by the powerful Church and Nation Committee. Indeed, it was to this Committee that the population turned to for a moral lead during Thatcherism. When James VI (‘Jamie the Saxt’) became James I in England, the population turned to senior Scottish earls for a moral lead. Unfortunately, the Piskie Church does not give a moral lead in Scotland, apart from the work of the Scottish Constitutional Convention in the recent past. The RC Church does pronounce on moral issues. Could it not be conceivable that all the major Churches could unite in a Committee to pronounce for Scotland on moral issues as the Church & Nation Committee once did?

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Aldous N. Gaiters

01/09/2010

Speaking as a Nonjuror myself I am sure the SEC has a right to a moral voice in Scotland. Taking the US daughter church of the SEC as a model you could see where the fissures would appear. There is room for a modern liberal Christian voice, but even I an old Liberal myself, would have to fear that such a voice might appeal to only a select few.

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