• Last Year’s Predictions – how did I do?

    Last year I made a number of predictions. Time to see how I did.

    Following recent revelations, this will be the year that former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey finally shuts up. Expect no silly press releases on the eve of Church of England Synod. (From Carey anyway).

    We’ve heard almost nothing from Carey this last year.  Indeed, we’ve heard more about Carey’s pic being removed from King’s College London than from him directly. Prediction correct.

     The Columba Declaration recently leaked to the press will not in fact be adopted unamended by both the Church of Scotland General Assembly in May and by the Church of England General Synod in February.

    Alas, it went through unmodified. Shockwaves in Scotland. Probably the final blow to the organic unity model of ecumenical engagement in Scotland. Prediction incorrect.

    Solid vote in favour of first reading of legislation for removal of definition of marriage from the canons of the Scottish Episcopal Church opening the way towards a final vote in 2017.

    Yes – solid vote in favour at last synod. Still don’t know whether it will get through next year at the final vote but it achieved a 66% majority in all houses last year when it needed only 50%. Prediction correct

    The Anglican Communion will move back towards being a fellowship of autonomous churches following the Primates’ Conference in January. Justin Welby will do the right thing for the wrong reasons. (ie he will accept the inevitable loosening of ties that stems from the global domination fantasies of his predecessors but not speak up for LGBT friendly churches).

    This one depends entirely on the point of view of the onlooker. Welby has not spoken up for LGBT friendly churches, the communion is less united than ever but there will be another Lambeth Conference. I’m calling this a draw. Prediction correct and incorrect depending on one’s prejudices.

    The SNP will win a landslide in the Holyrood Election. There will be UKIP representation in Holyrood for the first time.

    Well, the SNP won the election with a landslide but didn’t get a majority. No UKIP representation in Holyrood. Hurrah!  Prediction largely incorrect.

    The SNP will continue to work for their preferred outcome in the European Union referendum – an overall majority in the UK in favour of staying in, a massive majority in Scotland for staying in and a majority in England for leaving the EU.

    Well, we can’t say whether this one was correct or not. I still think this would have suited the SNP more than any other result. However there’s no saying whether that’s what they were working for or not now. Inconclusive

    The Democrats will retain the White House.

    Fail! Appalling fail! Prediction incorrect.

    Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour Party leader by the end of 2016 and become a little more popular within the Labour Party the longer he is there.  The Labour Party will still seem unelectable at the end of the year. No major defections along the way. (There’s nowhere to go).

    I think I got this one bang on. Prediction correct.

    A successful cyber terrorist attack on a major Western financial institution. (It is only a matter of time).

    Hmm, when is it cyber-terrorism and when is it just plain cyber-fraud? I’m claiming this as a hit – £2.5 million stolen from Tesco bank this year and other incidents around the world. Prediction essentially correct

    Amateur drone crash causing loss of life.

    So far as I know this one did not come to pass but there have been some frightening near misses. Prediction incorrect.

    3D printed food experiments in restaurants.

    Oh yes, that happened. Prediction correct.

    More major news outlets closing down the comments sections on their websites as open comments become unmanagable.

    Part of a continuing trend. For example, see here. Prediction correct.

     

    I make that roughly 7 correct and 5 incorrect. Ish. Out of 10.

4 responses to “Book Review”

  1. Peter O Avatar

    I think you miss the point of the book Kelvin. It’s meant to be a guide to listening to *all* sides of the debate, not just those you agree with. That’s what makes the last section so good, because it forces us to deal realistically not just with the genuine evidence on the causality of homosexuality, but also the fact that some people *do* see remarkable change in their sexual orientation (and that others don’t).

    I wrote my own review here.

  2.  Avatar
    Anonymous

    We were not called by the last Lambeth Conference to listen to all sides in the debate.

  3. ryan Avatar
    ryan

    Ruth Gledhill has posted a PDF of the whole thing, for those interested:
    http://timescolumns.typepad.com/gledhill/files/Final.pdf

  4. Rosemary Avatar
    Rosemary

    I’ve now read the ‘scientific’ section – thanks for the link ryan – and I thought it was mixed. I thought Glynn Harrison made a serious attempt at dispassion. I think it is a fair point that any person must decide their own priorities, and the final argument must be between theologies, not sciences. I was not so impressed by David de Pomerai – though one could hardly quarrel with his conclusion that we simply do not know exactly what makes one person homosexual and the next heterosexual. However his whole argument was bedevilled by assumptions that, e.g. homosexual men will be more effeminate than straight ones. Anecdotal evidence instantly produces examples where it is the straight male siblings who are drama queens and run from spiders, while gay ones take it all in their stride.

    It must be accepted that both gay and straight people live with voluntary or enforced celibacy with no ill effects – and that some people can change their sexual orientation and live happily with the change. What I found truly heart rending were the desperate attempts and the high cost to those who actually did succeed in changing orientation – however much Harrison denies the skin colour analogy, it reminded me painfully of those endless jars of skin lightener which encrust Sri Lankan chemists, where beauty is measured in skin tone. Because whether or not genetic, orientation is not a simple free choice. But I suppose the answer would be: ‘And what is?’

    The final point, though, is always the same. Is Christianity a religion of an authoritative book, or an authoritative Person?

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