• Predictions 2021 – How did I do?

    Time to see how I did with my predictions at the start of this year.

    Boris Johnson will achieve his longstanding ambition to become a former Prime Minister.

    Alas, Boris Johnson did not achieve this ambition this year. But we must award him 10/10 for trying. He’ll get there in the end. Prediction not accurate

    Stock market higher at end of 2021 than at the beginning (FTSE – 6,460) but higher inflation too (most recent CPIH – 0.6%).

    Yes, the stock market is higher and so is inflation. (FTSE – 7379 and most recent CPIH – 4.6%). Prediction accurate.

    No progress for those hoping for marriage equality in the Church of England.

    Indeed, no progress at all for those hoping for marriage equality in the Church of England. Moreover, any hope is receding, made much worse by the Church in Wales opting for blessing same-sex couples rather than marrying them. Prediction accurate.

    State based hackers turn their disruptive attention to open source software. (Watch out WordPress).

    Hard to prove but there are reports suggesting this is happening and indeed may have been happening before this year. I’m claiming this as a win. Prediction accurate.

    Donald Trump will remain the centre of attention.

    He’s not gone away. He’s not been convicted of anything. He’s building his media empire. He wants to run again and has no major republican challenger. Prediction accurate

    There will be midnight mass in St Mary’s Cathedral, Glasgow next Christmas Eve. People will be wearing masks.

    Accurate in every respect. Prediction accurate.

    A rocky year for Nicola Sturgeon but the SNP will be returned triumphant to Holyrood, despite their record.

    Well it wasn’t really a rocky year for Nicola Sturgeon who is still the only show in town but the SNP did return in triumph to Holyrood despite their record. Prediction partially accurate.

    No vote on Scottish Independence this year but like it or not, constitutional change is a-coming.

    Indeed so. It has been quite a year for asking whether devolution works. Prediction accurate.

    Attempt to repeal the Human Rights Act, removing the provisions of the European Convention on Human Rights from UK law. (It is a stepping stone to restoring capital punishment – the Brexiteers are not done with us yet).

    Consultation currently underway on a plan to replace the Human Rights Act with a Bill of Rights that would distance the UK from the ECHR. Prediction sadly accurate.

    Legislation emerges in Scotland to restrict fireworks.

    The Fireworks (Scotland) Miscellaneous Amendments Regulations 2021 were brought in at the end of June restricting the times of day that fireworks can be used to between 6 pm and 11 pm, restricting the times of sale and limiting the amount that can be sold to someone at any one time. We’ll see how these restrictions have been received at about one minute past midnight tonight. Prediction accurate.

    Not a bad year overall. I’m claiming 8½ out of 10.

4 responses to “Book Review”

  1. Peter O Avatar

    I think you miss the point of the book Kelvin. It’s meant to be a guide to listening to *all* sides of the debate, not just those you agree with. That’s what makes the last section so good, because it forces us to deal realistically not just with the genuine evidence on the causality of homosexuality, but also the fact that some people *do* see remarkable change in their sexual orientation (and that others don’t).

    I wrote my own review here.

  2.  Avatar
    Anonymous

    We were not called by the last Lambeth Conference to listen to all sides in the debate.

  3. ryan Avatar
    ryan

    Ruth Gledhill has posted a PDF of the whole thing, for those interested:
    http://timescolumns.typepad.com/gledhill/files/Final.pdf

  4. Rosemary Avatar
    Rosemary

    I’ve now read the ‘scientific’ section – thanks for the link ryan – and I thought it was mixed. I thought Glynn Harrison made a serious attempt at dispassion. I think it is a fair point that any person must decide their own priorities, and the final argument must be between theologies, not sciences. I was not so impressed by David de Pomerai – though one could hardly quarrel with his conclusion that we simply do not know exactly what makes one person homosexual and the next heterosexual. However his whole argument was bedevilled by assumptions that, e.g. homosexual men will be more effeminate than straight ones. Anecdotal evidence instantly produces examples where it is the straight male siblings who are drama queens and run from spiders, while gay ones take it all in their stride.

    It must be accepted that both gay and straight people live with voluntary or enforced celibacy with no ill effects – and that some people can change their sexual orientation and live happily with the change. What I found truly heart rending were the desperate attempts and the high cost to those who actually did succeed in changing orientation – however much Harrison denies the skin colour analogy, it reminded me painfully of those endless jars of skin lightener which encrust Sri Lankan chemists, where beauty is measured in skin tone. Because whether or not genetic, orientation is not a simple free choice. But I suppose the answer would be: ‘And what is?’

    The final point, though, is always the same. Is Christianity a religion of an authoritative book, or an authoritative Person?

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