What is in Kelvin's Head?

  • Last year’s predictions (2020) – how did I do?

    Well, thank you for asking.

    Here’s what I predicted for 2020 and here’s how I did.

    Scotland will not vote for Independence in 2020

    Scotland didn’t.
    Prediction accurate.

    No progress for those hoping for Equal Marriage in the Church of England.

    There was none.
    Prediction accurate.

    Narrow Democrat victory in American election – country as divided as ever – widespread belief that the election was rigged.

    Well, there was a Democrat victory in America. It wasn’t as narrow as it initially appeared but the country is as divided as ever with widespread belief that the election was rigged.
    Prediction substantially accurate.

    Scottish government proposals on reforming the Gender Recognition Act go through largely as proposed in consultation document.

    I’m sorry this didn’t happen and I’m sorry that trans people are at the epicentre of the latest culture war. The Scottish government’s proposals on Gender ID were pragmatic and sensible and no-one has come up with any better proposals on how a gender recognition certificate should be issued. (Statutary declaration by individual whilst criminalizing false or misleading declarations).
    Prediction inaccurate.

    Limited agreements at COP talks but derided as too little too late.

    No COP.
    Prediction inaccurate due to covid.

    UK leaves the EU and is subsequently unable to agree a substantial deal.

    Well, the UK did leave the EU and just about managed to agree a substantial deal though not a very good one.
    Prediction mostly inaccurate.

    No trade deal with the USA

    No trade deal with the USA.
    Prediction accurate

    Yvette Cooper will become the leader of the Labour Party.

    Missed this one but I note that Rosemary Hannah correctly tipped Starmer in the comments.
    Prediction inaccurate.

    Stock market lower at the end of the year than it is today. (FTSE 7,542.44)

    FTSE at 6470.
    Prediction accurate.

    Increasing visible support for LGBT Roman Catholics from within the Roman Catholic Church.

    This was the one that most people seemed to think bonkers. I actually had in mind something quite local which didn’t happen due to Covid but which I think might happen next year instead. However, the Holy Father came through for me – “Pope Francis backs same-sex civil unions” and in recent days we have had – “Head of German bishops, self-described conservative, calls for change”. Stuff is happening in the RC church. It is a long journey but there’s change in the air. Prediction accurate.

    Overall – not bad, considering…

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5 responses to “Diocesan Synod”

  1. Mary Sue Avatar
    Mary Sue

    I fight this every stinkin’ time I’m in church. The average age of our Vestry is 47, the eldest is 69 and the youngest is 28 (*waves*).

    However, all I hear about is how we are a ‘grey’ church in fear of dying.

    I think it’s too much trust in statistics and not enough in the power of the Holy Spirit. And I will beat that through their heads if it KILLS ME.

    Reply
  2. Eamonn Avatar
    Eamonn

    Conversations about mission that assume the Church is dying are bad enough, but at least the subject is being talked about. It’s worse when the mere idea of having a conversation about mission causes consternation and retreat behind the brocaded curtains.

    If such a conversation is to get going at all, however, we need to be prepared to rethink radically our ecclesiology. It may not be strictly inevitable that decline will continue, but we need to be realistic about the prospects (such as they are) for future provision of ordained ministers and stipends to sustain them. All churches are facing a decline in these areas.

    Reply
  3. Eamonn Avatar
    Eamonn

    P.S. – I’m not leaving the Holy Spirit out of the reckoning, simply saying that sober and realistic thinking is one of the less trumpeted gifts of the Spirit.

    Reply
  4. Kirstin Avatar
    Kirstin

    I was feeling much the same Kelvin, I was starting to believe all the doom and gloom merchants and wasn’t looking forward to another 3 days of it. I didn’t really think it was the case but when the dripping tap just keeps on going eventually you start to wonder. LYCIG gave me the kick up the backside I was needing to stop listening to the negative and concentrate on the positive and there is lots of that about. If we keep talking about decline we will talk ourselves into it, we need to stop it now!

    Reply
  5. duncan Avatar
    duncan

    Mary Sue,

    Perhaps some parts of our church are glad to be grey.

    But seriously, while I applaud the resistance to ‘sociological determinism’ (i.e. decline is inevitable), I think we can also think creatively about our demographics before we chuck out the baby, or the bathwater. It’s time to recycle the grey water.

    Some recent thoughts I had are here:
    http://www.dunc.info/?p=94

    (I don’t know how to do that clever trackback thing…)

    Reply

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