What is in Kelvin's Head?

  • How did I do with last year’s predictions?

    Here’s a run down of how I did at last year’s predictions.

    • Good results for Nigel Farage following the English local elections in May. Terrible results for Conservative Party.

    Exactly what happened. YES

    • No progress towards the marriage of same-sex couples in the Church of England

    Exactly what happened. Indeed, I think things may have gone into reverse. YES

    • Turbulent year for WordPress, which powers about half of the internet.

    The year began with Automattic dramatically cutting its contribution to development leading to stagnation in development and much acrimony. Subsequently restored. Deep divisions remain about Gutenberg. I’m claiming this as a YES.

    • 2025 will be the hottest year on record.

    Final figures yet to be calibrated but all reports indicate that this, unfortunately is a YES.

    • No trade deal for UK with US. Increasing talk of re-aligning economy closer to EU.

    Well, there was a trade deal in May called the Economic Prosperity Deal but it doesn’t seem to much and some of the basics have already been reversed. I suppose I have to be honest and say I didn’t get this quite right so it is a NO. But…

    • Ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine war but no long term solution.

    Hard to assess this one. No long term solution, certainly. There have been a series of ceasefires proposed but none seems really to have been fully implemented. Partial YES.

    • “Assisted Dying” aka doctor assisted suicide becomes legal in at least one of the jurisdictions of the British Isles.

    I have to put this down as a  NO  as it completed its parliamentary journey in the Isle of Man but hasn’t received Royal Assent yet, so not technically legal.

    • Turbulent year for economy but stock market higher at end of year than beginning. (FTSE currently at 8,173)

    Stock market at 9,931 today and there was quite a lot of volatility in the first part of the year. So this one is a YES.

    • There will be fewer Commonwealth Realms (ie countries which share the monarchy) by the end of 2025 than there are now.

    This one is a NO though there has been significant progress in that direction in Jamaica and moves that way in Grenada.

    • Philip Mountstephen.

    Well, I was pushing Philip Mounstephen’s name as he appeared to be the only senior bishop in the C of E who actually believed the [absurd] position of the C of E bishops on same-sex relationships. But it is a NO – nothing significant to report.

     

    So – five and a half out of ten this year. Not as good as some years. A couple of near misses.

     

    ,

15 responses to “The Trump of Judgement for Liberals”

  1. Guy Avatar
    Guy

    I heard someone talking on the radio who had looked at actual voting data (wherever such people get that from). Predictors of whether someone was a Trump voter, though by no means decisive ones, were whether someone earned more than $50000, had never gone to college or had done so but dropped out, was male, and over 44 years old. But there were people in those categories who had voted for Clinton as well. Even the much spoken of Hispanic vote was not as big a predictor of voting preference as thought and there were too many women who hated Hilary Clinton for misogyny to be the overarching factor.

    The stand out predictor which went across all categories was colour, whites going for Trump, up to %58.

    This vote was an anti-Obama backlash from people who couldn’t quite forgive the fact that an African-American had been running the show for eight years, whether the racism was of the vitriolic nasty sort or the more urbane sort that says that some of the other lot are probably ok, but only as long as we don’t have to actually mix with them and they’re somewhere else, it amounts to the same thing. The analyst speaking referred to a sort of nostalgia for when whites seemed to be in overall charge of everything.

    As to our response: as far as I can see the reason American politics is so vitriolic is because Liberals and Conservatives hate each other and also want to remake the other side in their own image.

    Love the other: well very gospel, but pretty darned hard when you struggle to even like xenophobic misogynistic lgbt-haters, let alone love them!

    Love might be the attitude that those of us who call ourselves Christians have to struggle towards, but I’m less sanguine than Kelvin is on this one and the verse that keeps going through my mind is the bit in Ecclesiastes about there being a time for this a time for that.

    Sometimes conflict is inevitable and has to be fought to a finish. You can’t react to the kind of person who shouted out at Trump’s victory speech “jail Obama” on the basis of well, six of one and half a dozen of the other. And such people aren’t exactly amenable to sweet reason.

    On the other hand sometimes people have just to be left alone. Forceably trying to remake the other in your own image just antagonises.

    I think our response has to be to discern the difference between the two situations. And to redouble our efforts to make sure that a Trump can’t become Prime Minister in the UK.

    Reply
  2. Eamonn Avatar
    Eamonn

    A prophetic and timely warning, Kelvin. What Trump represents is on the way to becoming a global phenomenon. The tone of his rallies, and the chanting of mindless slogans, is all too reminiscent of Germany in the 1930s. The fact that his election has been welcomed by Marine le Pen and other far-right leaders in Europe speaks volumes.

    Reply
  3. Guy Avatar
    Guy

    Something to think about: when it penetrates the general consciousness that the majority of white conservative evangelicals voted for Donald Trump, what if anything will be the fall out for Christianity as a whole?

    Reply

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