• Last year’s predictions (2020) – how did I do?

    Well, thank you for asking.

    Here’s what I predicted for 2020 and here’s how I did.

    Scotland will not vote for Independence in 2020

    Scotland didn’t.
    Prediction accurate.

    No progress for those hoping for Equal Marriage in the Church of England.

    There was none.
    Prediction accurate.

    Narrow Democrat victory in American election – country as divided as ever – widespread belief that the election was rigged.

    Well, there was a Democrat victory in America. It wasn’t as narrow as it initially appeared but the country is as divided as ever with widespread belief that the election was rigged.
    Prediction substantially accurate.

    Scottish government proposals on reforming the Gender Recognition Act go through largely as proposed in consultation document.

    I’m sorry this didn’t happen and I’m sorry that trans people are at the epicentre of the latest culture war. The Scottish government’s proposals on Gender ID were pragmatic and sensible and no-one has come up with any better proposals on how a gender recognition certificate should be issued. (Statutary declaration by individual whilst criminalizing false or misleading declarations).
    Prediction inaccurate.

    Limited agreements at COP talks but derided as too little too late.

    No COP.
    Prediction inaccurate due to covid.

    UK leaves the EU and is subsequently unable to agree a substantial deal.

    Well, the UK did leave the EU and just about managed to agree a substantial deal though not a very good one.
    Prediction mostly inaccurate.

    No trade deal with the USA

    No trade deal with the USA.
    Prediction accurate

    Yvette Cooper will become the leader of the Labour Party.

    Missed this one but I note that Rosemary Hannah correctly tipped Starmer in the comments.
    Prediction inaccurate.

    Stock market lower at the end of the year than it is today. (FTSE 7,542.44)

    FTSE at 6470.
    Prediction accurate.

    Increasing visible support for LGBT Roman Catholics from within the Roman Catholic Church.

    This was the one that most people seemed to think bonkers. I actually had in mind something quite local which didn’t happen due to Covid but which I think might happen next year instead. However, the Holy Father came through for me – “Pope Francis backs same-sex civil unions” and in recent days we have had – “Head of German bishops, self-described conservative, calls for change”. Stuff is happening in the RC church. It is a long journey but there’s change in the air. Prediction accurate.

    Overall – not bad, considering…

6 responses to “Back from Sweden”

  1. chris Avatar

    I don’t think so. I’m not a Nat, and I didn’t vote for them – but I’m pretty appalled at the Lib Dem stance on this. If there was a re-run, I’d be tempted to vote SNP just to prove a point. You *can’t* expect the majority party to go back on a manifesto promise – and I don’t think it’s morally on.
    If the Lib Dems had won under the same circs, would you still say this?

  2. Stewart Avatar

    The difficulty I have with the whole situation is that there was multiple adverts, leaflets, etc describing the voting methods. The returning officer at my local council distributed a special leaflet – before all the political leaflets deluged me – setting out the way to vote. I also felt the voting papers were clear in their directions. Even the party literature gave directions on how the voting took place and how to vote for a particular candidate/party.

    I do not think were are in a Florida situation were the voting papers could possibly be misunderstood by the way the place for the holes to be punched were interleaved, and the holes where not always completed punched through.

    On the Scottish Parliament Paper it was clear to me that one cross went in one column and one cross in the other column. The second paper for the local councillers was to rank the candidates in order.

  3. vicky Avatar
    vicky

    I agree with Stewart, but I struggle a bit with Chris’s point. I think that politics by referendum is always problematic and we have a representative democracy for historic reasons (to protect from civil war if you care to go back to the 1640-60s and see why the subsequent Restoration Government worried so much about government by petition, which it is hard not to view an independence referendum as.) For my mind there is no concensus about a referendum and the Lib Dems were right not to sign up to a coalition when such a central issue is on the table. Perhaps a minority government, however, might be a more liberal one any way? (though, it is more likely to descend into a power manipulating fiasco….)

  4. kelvin Avatar
    kelvin

    Chris – I don’t agree. The nature of coalition is trying to make an agreement that you can both agree on. Both Labour and the Lib Dems had to compromise last time and each were unable to implement their manifesto in full. I think that kind of compromise is probably good for Scotland, even though, like anyone involved I would like to be able to implement a manifesto fully that I believe in.

    We are so unused to coalition talks that we don’t know what to do with them. There is no reason why the Nats should not try to govern as a minority government. There would be many measures that the Lib Dems (and even Labour) would support them on. There were times during the last sitting of the parliament when I thought that we would have been better to have a minority Labour government.

    The Lib Dems could no more become a government delivering a referendum when they had said they would not than the Nats could become part of one which didn’t when they said they would. It works both ways. The Nats didn’t have a majority and have no mandate to force through anything. I’m happy with the idea that law is made on the basis of what happens in a parliament rather than what is put in a manifesto.

    Stewart – clearly you understood the process involved. That does not seem to me to cancel out the spoiled ballot papers. We don’t know yet why so many went uncounted, but we do know that it was far, far more than ever before and that they could have affected the result. I’d like to think I would take the same view about the need to rerun the election whatever the result.

    Vicky – I’m also inclined to be suspicious of government by referenda. Big Brother has taughts us, amongst many things, that we could have a vote every evening on any issue of the day. However, governing by plebiscite is governing without either scrutiny or loyal opposition.

  5. David Avatar

    I think that the SNP calling itself Alax Salmond for First Minister party had a lot to blame for the confusion. The voter should have been presented with a column of parties and a column of candidates. What we got were two columns apparently starting with candidates. Think how the brain scans the voting paper – title, first in each column, then the detail.

    It is simply appalling that so many votes were lost. Ideally, we should run the election again, but I really wonder if we collectively can face it. If no FM/PO declared, then we have to do it.

  6. vicky Avatar
    vicky

    As the numbers of spoilt ballot papers rise…I think we have to give in and hold another election….:(

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