• Last Year’s Predictions – how did I do?

    Last year I made a number of predictions. Time to see how I did.

    Following recent revelations, this will be the year that former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey finally shuts up. Expect no silly press releases on the eve of Church of England Synod. (From Carey anyway).

    We’ve heard almost nothing from Carey this last year.  Indeed, we’ve heard more about Carey’s pic being removed from King’s College London than from him directly. Prediction correct.

     The Columba Declaration recently leaked to the press will not in fact be adopted unamended by both the Church of Scotland General Assembly in May and by the Church of England General Synod in February.

    Alas, it went through unmodified. Shockwaves in Scotland. Probably the final blow to the organic unity model of ecumenical engagement in Scotland. Prediction incorrect.

    Solid vote in favour of first reading of legislation for removal of definition of marriage from the canons of the Scottish Episcopal Church opening the way towards a final vote in 2017.

    Yes – solid vote in favour at last synod. Still don’t know whether it will get through next year at the final vote but it achieved a 66% majority in all houses last year when it needed only 50%. Prediction correct

    The Anglican Communion will move back towards being a fellowship of autonomous churches following the Primates’ Conference in January. Justin Welby will do the right thing for the wrong reasons. (ie he will accept the inevitable loosening of ties that stems from the global domination fantasies of his predecessors but not speak up for LGBT friendly churches).

    This one depends entirely on the point of view of the onlooker. Welby has not spoken up for LGBT friendly churches, the communion is less united than ever but there will be another Lambeth Conference. I’m calling this a draw. Prediction correct and incorrect depending on one’s prejudices.

    The SNP will win a landslide in the Holyrood Election. There will be UKIP representation in Holyrood for the first time.

    Well, the SNP won the election with a landslide but didn’t get a majority. No UKIP representation in Holyrood. Hurrah!  Prediction largely incorrect.

    The SNP will continue to work for their preferred outcome in the European Union referendum – an overall majority in the UK in favour of staying in, a massive majority in Scotland for staying in and a majority in England for leaving the EU.

    Well, we can’t say whether this one was correct or not. I still think this would have suited the SNP more than any other result. However there’s no saying whether that’s what they were working for or not now. Inconclusive

    The Democrats will retain the White House.

    Fail! Appalling fail! Prediction incorrect.

    Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour Party leader by the end of 2016 and become a little more popular within the Labour Party the longer he is there.  The Labour Party will still seem unelectable at the end of the year. No major defections along the way. (There’s nowhere to go).

    I think I got this one bang on. Prediction correct.

    A successful cyber terrorist attack on a major Western financial institution. (It is only a matter of time).

    Hmm, when is it cyber-terrorism and when is it just plain cyber-fraud? I’m claiming this as a hit – £2.5 million stolen from Tesco bank this year and other incidents around the world. Prediction essentially correct

    Amateur drone crash causing loss of life.

    So far as I know this one did not come to pass but there have been some frightening near misses. Prediction incorrect.

    3D printed food experiments in restaurants.

    Oh yes, that happened. Prediction correct.

    More major news outlets closing down the comments sections on their websites as open comments become unmanagable.

    Part of a continuing trend. For example, see here. Prediction correct.

     

    I make that roughly 7 correct and 5 incorrect. Ish. Out of 10.

2 responses to “10 Things I learned from being a General Election Candidate”

  1. Father David Avatar
    Father David

    Your second point about people knowing almost nothing about the democratic process was demonstrated admirably in a recent television programme called “Educating Joey Essex”. The young man in question who came to fame via TOWIE interviewed three leaders of Political Parties – Messrs Clegg, Miliband and Farage (Mr. Cameron declined to be interviewed). By the end of the programme Joey had learned that Parliament was an institution rather than a person.
    May I add an eleventh point to your list of ten?
    In American Presidential elections it is often said that the candidate with the most hair usually wins (that bodes well for Hillary Clinton). I will stick my head above the parapet and say that the leader who wears a tie (i.e. Looking most Statesman like) will become Prime Minister. Throughout the campaign Mr. Miliband has consistently been seen wearing a tie and a smart suit while Mr. Cameron has been seen wearing an open neck shirt with rolled up sleeves and Mr. Clegg similarly attired with open neck shirt and a casual blue jumper. I therefore foresee that Ed Miliband will gain the keys to Number 10 following tomorrow’s General Election. Despite protestations to the contrary he will probably do so with the assistance of the admirable and formidable Nicola Sturgeon who is also a model of sartorial elegance. however my theory is at its weakest when looking at the way the leader of Ukip is also similarly smartly attired but thankfully and mercifully Nigel hadn’t a hope in hell of winning! Mind what does it say of our electoral system is the SNP get 5% of the vote and are rewarded with 50 seats and Ukip get 10% of the vote and only win 2 seats? Having said that, I’m still a first past the post man.

    1. Tim Avatar

      I’m still a PR chap but that scenario is a great argument in favour of FPTP 😉

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Previous Posts

  • Cathedral as Emergent Community

    Cathedrals are doing quite well. Now, as with all generalisations and stereotypes, this is both sometimes true and sometimes not. However, it is something that quite a lot of people are talking about. The recent Grubb Institute report had some astonishing statistics suggesting that large portions of the adult population in England had entered a…

  • Guest Post: How to Hear a Sermon by Rosemary Hannah

    In this guest post, Rosemary Hannah reflects on how to hear a sermon. Rosemary teaches in TISEC, has just written the definitive biography of the Third Marquess of Bute and is a member of the congregation at St Mary’s. ‘I always listen to the sermon, knowing the word of God will reach me through it,’…

  • The Five Marks of Mission (Useful or not?)

    Following on from my diatribe about the word Missional the other week, here’s another thing. Are the Five Marks of Mission which are so very often discussed in Anglican circles as useful as people presume? Here I would have to say that I believe in them all. I think they are all lovely, vital, necessary…

  • Sermon – The Proud Young Man

    I was preaching today for the first time in about six weeks and had a lot of fun doing so. You can hear what I had to say here or read it below. There is something terribly tricky about young men who get excited about religion. I remember a number of years ago. I was…