What is in Kelvin's Head?

Last Year’s Predictions – how did I do?

31/12/2016

Last year I made a number of predictions. Time to see how I did.

Following recent revelations, this will be the year that former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey finally shuts up. Expect no silly press releases on the eve of Church of England Synod. (From Carey anyway).

We’ve heard almost nothing from Carey this last year. Indeed, we’ve heard more about Carey’s pic being removed from King’s College London than from him directly. Prediction correct.

The Columba Declaration recently leaked to the press will not in fact be adopted unamended by both the Church of Scotland General Assembly in May and by the Church of England General Synod in February.

Alas, it went through unmodified. Shockwaves in Scotland. Probably the final blow to the organic unity model of ecumenical engagement in Scotland. Prediction incorrect.

Solid vote in favour of first reading of legislation for removal of definition of marriage from the canons of the Scottish Episcopal Church opening the way towards a final vote in 2017.

Yes – solid vote in favour at last synod. Still don’t know whether it will get through next year at the final vote but it achieved a 66% majority in all houses last year when it needed only 50%. Prediction correct

The Anglican Communion will move back towards being a fellowship of autonomous churches following the Primates’ Conference in January. Justin Welby will do the right thing for the wrong reasons. (ie he will accept the inevitable loosening of ties that stems from the global domination fantasies of his predecessors but not speak up for LGBT friendly churches).

This one depends entirely on the point of view of the onlooker. Welby has not spoken up for LGBT friendly churches, the communion is less united than ever but there will be another Lambeth Conference. I’m calling this a draw. Prediction correct and incorrect depending on one’s prejudices.

The SNP will win a landslide in the Holyrood Election. There will be UKIP representation in Holyrood for the first time.

Well, the SNP won the election with a landslide but didn’t get a majority. No UKIP representation in Holyrood. Hurrah! Prediction largely incorrect.

The SNP will continue to work for their preferred outcome in the European Union referendum – an overall majority in the UK in favour of staying in, a massive majority in Scotland for staying in and a majority in England for leaving the EU.

Well, we can’t say whether this one was correct or not. I still think this would have suited the SNP more than any other result. However there’s no saying whether that’s what they were working for or not now. Inconclusive

The Democrats will retain the White House.

Fail! Appalling fail! Prediction incorrect.

Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour Party leader by the end of 2016 and become a little more popular within the Labour Party the longer he is there. The Labour Party will still seem unelectable at the end of the year. No major defections along the way. (There’s nowhere to go).

I think I got this one bang on. Prediction correct.

A successful cyber terrorist attack on a major Western financial institution. (It is only a matter of time).

Hmm, when is it cyber-terrorism and when is it just plain cyber-fraud? I’m claiming this as a hit – £2.5 million stolen from Tesco bank this year and other incidents around the world. Prediction essentially correct

Amateur drone crash causing loss of life.

So far as I know this one did not come to pass but there have been some frightening near misses. Prediction incorrect.

3D printed food experiments in restaurants.

Oh yes, that happened. Prediction correct.

More major news outlets closing down the comments sections on their websites as open comments become unmanagable.

Part of a continuing trend. For example, see here. Prediction correct.

I make that roughly 7 correct and 5 incorrect. Ish. Out of 10.

New Year Predictions, predictions 2016

8 responses to “Finding a place to be”

Gordon

11/10/2024

I do think it’s important to remember that the sectarian persecutions of the past happened within a context that regarded itself as Christian – whether Episcopalian north of the border, or Reformed south of the border, the majority culture just saw itself as the ‘correct’ church.

Our context is of overwhelming apathy towards religion at the best, and at worst, assuming that anyone religious is a fundamentalist with a scantily concealed desire to kill infidels.

But I agree that we would be wise to trust in the Holy Spirit.

Reply
Alastair O

12/10/2024

Kelvin
I always value reading your thoughts. May I suggest you give consideration when you use the word ‘church’? While the Church of Scotlad is closing many buildings, (s)he is not closing churches!

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1. Kelvin
  
  13/10/2024
  
  I’m aware of a C of S congregation which merged with a congregation that was a union of (I think) 7 congregations a number of years ago. This union of 8 has now announced its building will close and it will unite with another one making a union of 9. There is a plan to merge this with another congregation and there are discussions ongoing about which building should be kept.
  
  You can say that all those churches are still open if you like but I’m not sure that people local to this actually do see it that way.
  
  Reply
  1. Ferdinand von Prondzynski
    
    15/10/2024
    
    Indeed. See my separate comment.
    
    Reply
  2. Alastair O
    
    26/10/2024
    
    Greyfriars Kirk in Edinburgh is a united congregation which over the years has worshipped in 17 places. Worth a visit to see the 17 leg communion table crafted by its social enterprise arm Grassmarket Community Project.
    
    Reply
Rory Gillis

13/10/2024

Hi from Nova Scotia. You mention the Canadian Church in passing. Church demographers told us recently that the last Canadian Anglican will disappear by 2040 and the update is, maybe sooner as a result of the pandemic. My take is that parties, whether ‘liberal’ ( mine) or conservative ( some one else’s) are more consequence than cause. Our current decline is tied in with the decline of religion in Canada in general. Ethnicity is also an issue. Anglicans here are as ethnic as any one else. Our ethnic cohort stopped having large families over two generations ago. Urbanization, rural decline and with it regional outmigration in historically Anglican strong areas like Atlantic Canada are part of the picture.

I think one can distinguish between the decline of the grand old institution
( Anglican Church of Canada, previously The Church of England in Canada) and the future of a communities of faith with an Anglican heritage. Pace demographics, there are just too many stories of parishes and other entities being fully alive, full of The Spirit, doing creative things, holding a place in the community.

Kevin, as your article notes, anecdotes and stories matter. They not only provide hopeful pause for reflection: they also testify to the creative perseverance of a Spirit filled people.

Reply
1. Rory Gillis
  
  17/10/2024
  
  Fr. Kelvin, last para, my apololgy for the typo in your name.It was either auto correct or a inattentive scribal error on my part. I know several ‘Kevins’ indeed too many perhaps. lol. please fix if possible. R.G.
  
  Reply
Elaine

18/10/2024

I think people are done with man made religion but spirituality well that’s a different thing. I feel that you are correct people are drawn to love, inclusivity and holy spaces I think our church is such a space and I know it is growing. I remember Mission 21, it appalled me. Statistics and money. Surely we are beyond that. I have faith, what will be will be. But it might be different to what we think we should have or it should be. Exciting times.

Reply