What is in Kelvin's Head?

Last Year’s Predictions – how did I do?

31/12/2016

Last year I made a number of predictions. Time to see how I did.

Following recent revelations, this will be the year that former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey finally shuts up. Expect no silly press releases on the eve of Church of England Synod. (From Carey anyway).

We’ve heard almost nothing from Carey this last year. Indeed, we’ve heard more about Carey’s pic being removed from King’s College London than from him directly. Prediction correct.

The Columba Declaration recently leaked to the press will not in fact be adopted unamended by both the Church of Scotland General Assembly in May and by the Church of England General Synod in February.

Alas, it went through unmodified. Shockwaves in Scotland. Probably the final blow to the organic unity model of ecumenical engagement in Scotland. Prediction incorrect.

Solid vote in favour of first reading of legislation for removal of definition of marriage from the canons of the Scottish Episcopal Church opening the way towards a final vote in 2017.

Yes – solid vote in favour at last synod. Still don’t know whether it will get through next year at the final vote but it achieved a 66% majority in all houses last year when it needed only 50%. Prediction correct

The Anglican Communion will move back towards being a fellowship of autonomous churches following the Primates’ Conference in January. Justin Welby will do the right thing for the wrong reasons. (ie he will accept the inevitable loosening of ties that stems from the global domination fantasies of his predecessors but not speak up for LGBT friendly churches).

This one depends entirely on the point of view of the onlooker. Welby has not spoken up for LGBT friendly churches, the communion is less united than ever but there will be another Lambeth Conference. I’m calling this a draw. Prediction correct and incorrect depending on one’s prejudices.

The SNP will win a landslide in the Holyrood Election. There will be UKIP representation in Holyrood for the first time.

Well, the SNP won the election with a landslide but didn’t get a majority. No UKIP representation in Holyrood. Hurrah! Prediction largely incorrect.

The SNP will continue to work for their preferred outcome in the European Union referendum – an overall majority in the UK in favour of staying in, a massive majority in Scotland for staying in and a majority in England for leaving the EU.

Well, we can’t say whether this one was correct or not. I still think this would have suited the SNP more than any other result. However there’s no saying whether that’s what they were working for or not now. Inconclusive

The Democrats will retain the White House.

Fail! Appalling fail! Prediction incorrect.

Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour Party leader by the end of 2016 and become a little more popular within the Labour Party the longer he is there. The Labour Party will still seem unelectable at the end of the year. No major defections along the way. (There’s nowhere to go).

I think I got this one bang on. Prediction correct.

A successful cyber terrorist attack on a major Western financial institution. (It is only a matter of time).

Hmm, when is it cyber-terrorism and when is it just plain cyber-fraud? I’m claiming this as a hit – £2.5 million stolen from Tesco bank this year and other incidents around the world. Prediction essentially correct

Amateur drone crash causing loss of life.

So far as I know this one did not come to pass but there have been some frightening near misses. Prediction incorrect.

3D printed food experiments in restaurants.

Oh yes, that happened. Prediction correct.

More major news outlets closing down the comments sections on their websites as open comments become unmanagable.

Part of a continuing trend. For example, see here. Prediction correct.

I make that roughly 7 correct and 5 incorrect. Ish. Out of 10.

New Year Predictions, predictions 2016

20 responses to “What’s really happening to the churches in Scotland”

Josh

13/03/2024

Interesting article. I find the decline of the church in a once heavily Christian and missionary – sending country very sad. I note that the churches that seem to be doing the best are non-denominational churches especially and then traditional churches (like baptists – which I note you don’t mention) that stick to historical teaching of the truth of Christ as the God – man who came to earth, died on the cross for our sins, and was literally and bodily resurrection on the 3rd day and is now seated at the right hand of the Father. The world doesn’t need another social club of nice ethical people. It has those and the church can never really compete. What the church has is the powerful message of grace and redemption and the ability to have a loving relationship with the Creator of the universe.

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David Ross

03/05/2024

The Church of Scotland is now reaping the harvest of what they sowed at General Assembly 2013.

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1. Duncan Cromb
  
  27/07/2025
  
  The Church of Scotland has gone all woke. What we have done is an abomination. We have gone with the world. But we are in the world and not off it. We have gone against Israel and now support Hammas who are terrorists. Genesis 12:3 says Curse Israel and we’ll be cursed, bless Israel and we’ll be blessed. You can see the decline, even in the Bristish Empire when we became a non Christian government and against Israel. I wouldn’t go back to the General Assembly after what I heard there as an elder.
  
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Duncan Wright

09/07/2024

Scotland is coming back to its roots, the Orthodox Church is growing rapidly in scotland, and all over the west. And it is the younger generation coming to Orthodoxy, especially young men. Young people now are exposed to all sorts of degeneracy, vanity and the filth of this secular age. We are living in a time of weak leadership, and lack of the presence of a father figure. The modern churches are conforming to the world, and have completely fallen. There is no masculine presence or backbone, and are completely crumbling to these worldly times. I myself went to My Local church Kirk of Calder, a church of scotland church. In that time there was a vote for same sex marriage to be accepted in the church, which was put in place after a vote of 18-1. Is this any longer a church I dont think so, LORD HAVE MERCY. But we pray for them, and all our brotherhood in CHRIST that we come back to the true faith, the canons of the church, and the teachings of our Holy fathers. That we all are united again.

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GW

21/12/2024

Why no mention of churches and denominations that are growing?
The Assembly of God church in Fraserburgh has just completed a new building that can seat 1000 as its old hall could only seat 450. Despite this, it still had to use of booking system and had to run 3 services on a single Sunday a couple of weeks ago to ensure everyone could attend that week.

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1. Mairi
  
  09/06/2025
  
  how wonderful!
  
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Clare Mccann

11/03/2025

who says? if two people love one another, let the Church marry them, people interpret Sodom and Gomorrah and the New Testament differently. we legalised same sex marriage in a civil way and its 20 years since civil partnerships and society has survived. what does Joel Osteen do to get more people in his Church than Ibrox or Parkhead can hold? same sex marriage is hardly an issue, the charisma of the preacher is, the Kirk wouldnt take money from the National Lottery to save its buildings or have bars in its halls to sell alcohol, so who is to blame for the decline?

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1. Mike Burnett
  
  16/10/2025
  
  Those churches and denominations which are seeing growing congregations are not selling alcohol either. I believe that the difference between growing and declining churches is nothing to do with the charisma of the preachers and all to do with the message.
  
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