What is in Kelvin's Head?

Last Year’s Predictions

31/12/2015

Each year I try to make some predictions at New Year. And each year I take a look back on Hogmanay to see how I did.

Here’s the rundown of how I did last year.

1 Those who voted YES in the Scottish Referendum will continue to behave as though they won. This may be unhelpful.
2 Those who voted NO in the Scottish Referendum will continue to behave as thought he referendum never happened. This may be unhelpful.

Well, I think I got these both right. I don’t see much sign that we’ve moved on from the referendum. Alan McManus’s magazine article was a breath of fresh air, but a rare one.

3 There will, I fear, be a Tory Prime Minister at the end of 2015.

Bang on with this one.

4 The Liberal Democrats will retain 10 – 14 seats in the House of Commons.

Well, I got the detail wrong – the Lib Dems did even worse in the General Election. When I made this prediction, most people were predicting a Lib Dem presence of 30 – 36, I think. My prediction of electoral catastrophe was just not taken seriously by those whom I know who should have taken it most seriously. I’m claiming this as a very near miss.

5 Nick Clegg will lose his seat and be Lord Clegg by the end of the year.

That’s a miss. Nick Clegg kept his seat if not his party.

6 The Labour Party will not be led by a Milliband by the end of the year.

Well I didn’t see Jeremy Corbyn coming but it was clear to me that Ed Milliband wasn’t going anywhere fast. Remember though that right up until the General Election, most of the polls predicted a hung parliament and uncertainty about who would be the PM.

7 The Church of Scotland will begin a new procedure under the barrier act to determine whether to accept ministers in same-sex partnerships who are married (ie not merely in Civil Partnerships).

Got this one bang on. Presbyteries have just voted by a narrow majority to send this back to the General Assembly for decision in May.

8 There will be legal victories for those seeking to extend Civil Partnerships to straight couples.

Well, we’ve not see as many legal victories as I expected. However, we’ve got a rather uncomfortable consultation just completed in Scotland in which the Scottish Government announced before consulting, that it didn’t want to do what a lot of people want them to do. I hope it sticks to its guns though and refuses to allow straight couples (or indeed future gay couples) Civil Partnerships.

9 Elizabeth Warren will become a household name.

Well, this one didn’t really come to pass. My fantasy of a dream Hilary/Elizabeth ticket doesn’t look like becoming a reality either.

10 (Some) straight liberals will lead the charge (such as it is) for (something less than) LGBT equality, (sometimes). Believe it or not, I’m excited by this and it is an improvement. [Remember that in 2011 I predicted that “No straight liberal in the church will feel the need to sacrifice anything at all for the gay friends they purport to support.” Things are changing a bit].

I’m claiming this one as a win. I could feel it all around me at Greenbelt but I’ve felt it in other places too. Increasingly, the things I’ve been fighting for are becoming mainstream. Deo Gratias.

11 Advances in e-learning in churches.

This one is a miss. I’ve dabbled a bit myself but there’s no real sign of denominations doing what they need to do if they are going to teach their people any better in the future than they have done in the past.

20 responses to “What’s really happening to the churches in Scotland”

Josh

13/03/2024

Interesting article. I find the decline of the church in a once heavily Christian and missionary – sending country very sad. I note that the churches that seem to be doing the best are non-denominational churches especially and then traditional churches (like baptists – which I note you don’t mention) that stick to historical teaching of the truth of Christ as the God – man who came to earth, died on the cross for our sins, and was literally and bodily resurrection on the 3rd day and is now seated at the right hand of the Father. The world doesn’t need another social club of nice ethical people. It has those and the church can never really compete. What the church has is the powerful message of grace and redemption and the ability to have a loving relationship with the Creator of the universe.

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David Ross

03/05/2024

The Church of Scotland is now reaping the harvest of what they sowed at General Assembly 2013.

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1. Duncan Cromb
  
  27/07/2025
  
  The Church of Scotland has gone all woke. What we have done is an abomination. We have gone with the world. But we are in the world and not off it. We have gone against Israel and now support Hammas who are terrorists. Genesis 12:3 says Curse Israel and we’ll be cursed, bless Israel and we’ll be blessed. You can see the decline, even in the Bristish Empire when we became a non Christian government and against Israel. I wouldn’t go back to the General Assembly after what I heard there as an elder.
  
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Duncan Wright

09/07/2024

Scotland is coming back to its roots, the Orthodox Church is growing rapidly in scotland, and all over the west. And it is the younger generation coming to Orthodoxy, especially young men. Young people now are exposed to all sorts of degeneracy, vanity and the filth of this secular age. We are living in a time of weak leadership, and lack of the presence of a father figure. The modern churches are conforming to the world, and have completely fallen. There is no masculine presence or backbone, and are completely crumbling to these worldly times. I myself went to My Local church Kirk of Calder, a church of scotland church. In that time there was a vote for same sex marriage to be accepted in the church, which was put in place after a vote of 18-1. Is this any longer a church I dont think so, LORD HAVE MERCY. But we pray for them, and all our brotherhood in CHRIST that we come back to the true faith, the canons of the church, and the teachings of our Holy fathers. That we all are united again.

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GW

21/12/2024

Why no mention of churches and denominations that are growing?
The Assembly of God church in Fraserburgh has just completed a new building that can seat 1000 as its old hall could only seat 450. Despite this, it still had to use of booking system and had to run 3 services on a single Sunday a couple of weeks ago to ensure everyone could attend that week.

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1. Mairi
  
  09/06/2025
  
  how wonderful!
  
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Clare Mccann

11/03/2025

who says? if two people love one another, let the Church marry them, people interpret Sodom and Gomorrah and the New Testament differently. we legalised same sex marriage in a civil way and its 20 years since civil partnerships and society has survived. what does Joel Osteen do to get more people in his Church than Ibrox or Parkhead can hold? same sex marriage is hardly an issue, the charisma of the preacher is, the Kirk wouldnt take money from the National Lottery to save its buildings or have bars in its halls to sell alcohol, so who is to blame for the decline?

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1. Mike Burnett
  
  16/10/2025
  
  Those churches and denominations which are seeing growing congregations are not selling alcohol either. I believe that the difference between growing and declining churches is nothing to do with the charisma of the preachers and all to do with the message.
  
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