What is in Kelvin's Head?

Last year’s predictions (2020) – how did I do?

31/12/2020

Well, thank you for asking.

Here’s what I predicted for 2020 and here’s how I did.

Scotland will not vote for Independence in 2020

Scotland didn’t.
Prediction accurate.

No progress for those hoping for Equal Marriage in the Church of England.

There was none.
Prediction accurate.

Narrow Democrat victory in American election – country as divided as ever – widespread belief that the election was rigged.

Well, there was a Democrat victory in America. It wasn’t as narrow as it initially appeared but the country is as divided as ever with widespread belief that the election was rigged.
Prediction substantially accurate.

Scottish government proposals on reforming the Gender Recognition Act go through largely as proposed in consultation document.

I’m sorry this didn’t happen and I’m sorry that trans people are at the epicentre of the latest culture war. The Scottish government’s proposals on Gender ID were pragmatic and sensible and no-one has come up with any better proposals on how a gender recognition certificate should be issued. (Statutary declaration by individual whilst criminalizing false or misleading declarations).
Prediction inaccurate.

Limited agreements at COP talks but derided as too little too late.

No COP.
Prediction inaccurate due to covid.

UK leaves the EU and is subsequently unable to agree a substantial deal.

Well, the UK did leave the EU and just about managed to agree a substantial deal though not a very good one.
Prediction mostly inaccurate.

No trade deal with the USA

No trade deal with the USA.
Prediction accurate

Yvette Cooper will become the leader of the Labour Party.

Missed this one but I note that Rosemary Hannah correctly tipped Starmer in the comments.
Prediction inaccurate.

Stock market lower at the end of the year than it is today. (FTSE 7,542.44)

FTSE at 6470.
Prediction accurate.

Increasing visible support for LGBT Roman Catholics from within the Roman Catholic Church.

This was the one that most people seemed to think bonkers. I actually had in mind something quite local which didn’t happen due to Covid but which I think might happen next year instead. However, the Holy Father came through for me – “Pope Francis backs same-sex civil unions” and in recent days we have had – “Head of German bishops, self-described conservative, calls for change”. Stuff is happening in the RC church. It is a long journey but there’s change in the air. Prediction accurate.

Overall – not bad, considering…

2020, predictions, Predictions 2020

9 responses to “The Marriage Business”

Rhea

11/12/2012

I thought that what the government actually said was more of a “obviously with the current canon laws in place, the C of E and the Church in Wales won’t be able to opt in to marriage equality because their canon laws clearly state that marriage is between one man and one woman.”

To me the ultimate issue is with the churches and their canon laws that need to be changed, no?

Reply
1. Rhea
  
  11/12/2012
  
  I just saw this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20680924
  
  What in the world is the government thinking?!
  
  Reply
  1. kelvin
    
    11/12/2012
    
    Here’s the original announcement – quite clear that it isn’t just about Canon Law. They really are trying to make it illegal for the C of E and Church in Wales to opt in.
    
    http://www.culture.gov.uk/news/media_releases/9585.aspx
    
    Reply
  2. Beth
    
    11/12/2012
    
    The irony that that Department of Culture page is titled “Marriage For Everyone” absolutely knocks me down.
    
    I think that this more than anything else that has happened in equal marriage legislation this year has a real chance of being ruled illegal under Article 9 of the Human Rights Convention.
    
    Reply
Peter Higson

12/12/2012

Church of England clergy, and Church in Wales clergy, may take note of Giles Fraser’s suggestion: “So it will now be illegal for me to marry two people who live (with) each other. Now there is a cause worth going to prison for.” as report in the Independent.

Reply
1. kelvin
  
  12/12/2012
  
  Yes – I saw that tweet from Giles. Whilst supporting the sentiment, I suspect that he is going to have to work quite hard to find a judge willing to send him to prison for it.
  
  Reply
Martin Reynolds

12/12/2012

Yes, bizarre is the right word!

When the Church in Wales was disestablished back in 1920 it retained its priveledges and responsibilities with regard to marriage.

So, parishioners’ absolute legal right to be married in the parish church remains, as does the automatic right of Church in Wales clergy to be able to conduct marriages by virtue of their ordination alone.

We recently amended our requirements for residence to stay in line with the CofE, while they were able to do it through General Synod we had to resort to a Private Bill.

It now seems there are to be no EXTRA hurdles required by these two Churches, other than the separate Acts of Parliament they would need to change their current practice following agreement of General Synod or Governing Body.

Reply
Ali

13/12/2012

“if your denomination cannot or will not opt in then the time has come for you to stand up for whatâ€™s right. If you support equality, do something about it and show us what you are made of.” you not doing any more weddings until the SEC opts in then. Kelvin?

Reply
1. kelvin
  
  13/12/2012
  
  I think it quite likely that should the Scottish Episcopal Church chose not to opt into the coming legislation then I would come to be view that the time had come to stop signing marriage papers. That is not the same thing, of course, as stopping doing weddings.
  
  Reply