• How were my Predictions last year?

    Time to check out how I did with the predictions I made on New Year’s Day 2024.

    1  General Election in UK – Labour landslide. PM – Sir Keir Starmer. (No great change in policies from the Tory government that Labour will replace).

    Yes – fulfilled in every way.

    2  US politics will continue to be dominated by Donald Trump

    Yes

    3  In the US Presidential election in November there will be victory for the Republican Party.

    Yes

    4  AI/Deepfakes have a significant effect in electoral politics.

    Not really – AI/Deepfakes are present but there’s no real evidence that they swung any particular election

    5  Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine unresolved by end of 2024.

    Alas Yes

    6  No progress for those wanting marriage equality in the Church of England.

    Alas Yes

    7  Twitter goes bust or is sold or both.

    Not quite. Twitter feels pretty wounded but still Xists.

    8  The world will be warmer in 2024 than ever before.

    Yes

    9  Another country will join Nato.

    Yes, Sweden in March.

    A new agreement is reached between the UK and Greece on the Elgin/Parthenon Marbles that opens the door for at least some of them to be displayed in Athens.

    Close but no cigar.

     

    Not a bad year – 7 direct hits with a few misses.

6 responses to “Referendum? On a human rights issue?”

  1. Calum Avatar
    Calum

    “The Roman Catholic Cardinal is not the moral arbiter of Scottish society.”

    Agreed. It’s shocking that this one person is given so much time and space in the media.

  2. Adam Avatar
    Adam

    And since when was SS marriage a human right?

    1. kelvin Avatar

      Any time now, Adam

  3. Claire Avatar
    Claire

    As a Scottish Roman Catholic it pains me deeply that this man is the image that others may hold of myself. I am pro-equal marriage. Unconditional life-long love is such a rare beauty that if ANY two people want to encapsulate that in a marriage then they should be commended and celebrated, not shunned and ridiculed.

  4. Eric Avatar
    Eric

    Referenda ought to be used sparingly and then only for major constitutional realignment. Calls for a referendum further endanger representative democracy in seeking to by-pass elected representatives (note: not mandated delegates). Our representatives need our support despite and because of their frailties. We depend on their good judgement more than we realise. I’m not setting them up as paragons of wisdom and virtue but arguing that a referendum on a social issue (let alone a civil or human rights issue) places minorities in the hands of majorities that may have dangerous biases.
    A referendum on the death penalty, or on immigration, or on categories of welfare benefit could produce cruel results.
    Representative democracy is not perfect but better than other more direct forms of democracy.
    On the specific of same-sex marriage I don’t see the Cardinal’s logic. If politicians do not have a moral right to ‘redefine’ marriage in the light of natural law and God’s revealed intentions for humanity then how does a majority vote by citizens legitimate such a revision?

  5. Steven Avatar
    Steven

    Article 12 ECHR enshrines the right to marry subject to national laws. Those national laws currently restrict the right so that only heterosexual unions can be recognised as such. However, this legal restriction must not unlawfully discriminate against other persons, including Gay and Lesbian folk who wish to marry. Discrimination on this basis can only be justified if there is an objective and reasonable justification. The law now permits same-sex adoption in the UK and so it seems to me legally inconceivable that it shall not now permit equal marriage.

    Ergo – there is, in my view, already a legal right to equal marriage [in so far as the current restrictions are themselves unlawful].

    Indeed I am surprised that a test case has not been brought to challenge the current restriction although in the mouth of potential legislative change a court would be slow to get involved.

    For those who are interested in the legal aspects, a good starting point is to consider the Northern Irish case on unmarried couples and adoption, P (A Child) (Adoption: Unmarried Couples) [2008] UKHL 38.

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