What is in Kelvin's Head?

Predictions 2021 – How did I do?

31/12/2021

Time to see how I did with my predictions at the start of this year.

Boris Johnson will achieve his longstanding ambition to become a former Prime Minister.

Alas, Boris Johnson did not achieve this ambition this year. But we must award him 10/10 for trying. He’ll get there in the end. Prediction not accurate

Stock market higher at end of 2021 than at the beginning (FTSE – 6,460) but higher inflation too (most recent CPIH – 0.6%).

Yes, the stock market is higher and so is inflation. (FTSE – 7379 and most recent CPIH – 4.6%). Prediction accurate.

No progress for those hoping for marriage equality in the Church of England.

Indeed, no progress at all for those hoping for marriage equality in the Church of England. Moreover, any hope is receding, made much worse by the Church in Wales opting for blessing same-sex couples rather than marrying them. Prediction accurate.

State based hackers turn their disruptive attention to open source software. (Watch out WordPress).

Hard to prove but there are reports suggesting this is happening and indeed may have been happening before this year. I’m claiming this as a win. Prediction accurate.

Donald Trump will remain the centre of attention.

He’s not gone away. He’s not been convicted of anything. He’s building his media empire. He wants to run again and has no major republican challenger. Prediction accurate

There will be midnight mass in St Mary’s Cathedral, Glasgow next Christmas Eve. People will be wearing masks.

Accurate in every respect. Prediction accurate.

A rocky year for Nicola Sturgeon but the SNP will be returned triumphant to Holyrood, despite their record.

Well it wasn’t really a rocky year for Nicola Sturgeon who is still the only show in town but the SNP did return in triumph to Holyrood despite their record. Prediction partially accurate.

No vote on Scottish Independence this year but like it or not, constitutional change is a-coming.

Indeed so. It has been quite a year for asking whether devolution works. Prediction accurate.

Attempt to repeal the Human Rights Act, removing the provisions of the European Convention on Human Rights from UK law. (It is a stepping stone to restoring capital punishment – the Brexiteers are not done with us yet).

Consultation currently underway on a plan to replace the Human Rights Act with a Bill of Rights that would distance the UK from the ECHR. Prediction sadly accurate.

Legislation emerges in Scotland to restrict fireworks.

The Fireworks (Scotland) Miscellaneous Amendments Regulations 2021 were brought in at the end of June restricting the times of day that fireworks can be used to between 6 pm and 11 pm, restricting the times of sale and limiting the amount that can be sold to someone at any one time. We’ll see how these restrictions have been received at about one minute past midnight tonight. Prediction accurate.

Not a bad year overall. I’m claiming 8½ out of 10.

6 responses to “Hillhead By Election”

Zebadee

19/11/2011

It would seem that the Lib Dems are a ‘busted flush’ with no plan to make any meaningful comeback which is very sad. The SNP were in a similar position in the 1980s but did have a plan which has been successful. Is there not a case for the revival of The Liberal Party? There is certainly a need for such a political party for the whole of the UK not just Hillhead. The Liberal Party could possibly unite the whole of the UK and not just Scotland.

Reply
1. kelvin
  
  19/11/2011
  
  Well, the Liberal Party has never gone away – it still exists and has some councillors. No doubt they feel that their time might still come.
  
  I’ve a feeling that there probably needs to be a clear attempt to do something new though. A New Liberal Party could be formed by a significant breakaway of disaffected liberal democrats but would probably need some significant hitters in order to get going. Given that part of the problem is some very unimpressive leadership in the parliamentary party, it makes it hard to see that happening.
  
  Reply
Zebadee

19/11/2011

Yes I know that the Liberal party still exists and understand that they have little or nothing to do with the Lib Dems. They too have no big names or ‘big hitters’ which is a pity. As you yourself will know out there in the real world there is a need for a centre party not right or left. I suspect that there is a large number of thinking people who would at least listen to a political message from the ‘centre’ and they are worried and concerned at the polarisation of the right and the perceived ineptitude of the left in todays political parties.

Reply
Caron

20/11/2011

Kelvin, a few weeks ago, we had a by-election win in Inverness. The evidence suggests that the Liberal Democrats have not become toxic, but where we work, knocking on lots of doors, having strong campaign messages and get our vote out, we get good results.

We had a first class candidate in Hillhead, but I agree that we need to look at how we get our message across.

I’m not for the Murdo method of abolishing the party just to set up a new one. We have good, liberal ideas, with good, liberal values, and an energetic leader who is so genuine, so likeable and very good at explaining what they are. Yes, we have a mountain to climb, but we have our ropes and crampons ready and we’re already ahead of where we were a few months ago.

Reply
1. kelvin
  
  20/11/2011
  
  Yes, I know Caron – I agree with a lot of what you have said. However, the big question is whether the party can get people out there working again.
  
  The win in Inverness was good though it was a pretty narrow thing. Still a win is a win in anyone’s book.
  
  However, whether the party can get doors knocked on etc now is the big question. I know I’m not the only person who has offered a lot to the party in the past who is questioning where the liberal tradition lies.
  
  I know Willie Rennie is likeable and I do believe he stands for lots of good policy ideas that I believe in, but he’s not even making a good job of running his own office at the moment. And his team are not responding online to criticism of him very well either.
  
  I’d love to feel I wanted to support the party – I believe in liberal values, understand liberal values and can articulate liberal values along with the best of them. However, so much of what good people worked for has been squandered so quickly that I just find it too difficult. (By the way, I say that as one of the 307, so I’m still hanging in there in the polling booth).
  
  And the problem is not primarily that the electorate feels betrayed by the Lib Dem brand. That is serious but summountable. The problem is that the activists feel betrayed. That is much, much more serious.
  
  307 votes out of 23243 on leafy home ground and placed fifth is terrible whatever way one looks at it.
  
  The Greens were trumpeting their result on twitter so much I thought they must have won, but they only had 120 or so more votes which doesn’t strike me as a particularly exciting ship to jump to, even if one were looking to leap. I’m not really interested in a party which thinks that getting 435 votes out of an electorate of 23243 is anything to crow about.
  
  Reply
James

20/11/2011

Hi Kelvin, I agree about the democratic disengagement – properly alarming. But the Lib Dems as they currently exist aren’t a Liberal party of the sort I think you want. They’re fundamentalist economic liberals, Orange Bookers determined to remove the social safety net. It’s not liberal as I understand it to make education the province of the rich, to cut benefits for the disabled to appease the Jeremy Clarksons of this world, to hike up regressive taxes like VAT, etcetc.

The really small-l liberal party in Hillhead did a lot better than the Lib Dems. The Greens.

Reply