• Last year’s predictions (2020) – how did I do?

  31/12/2020

  Well, thank you for asking.

  Here’s what I predicted for 2020 and here’s how I did.

  Scotland will not vote for Independence in 2020

  Scotland didn’t.
  Prediction accurate.

  No progress for those hoping for Equal Marriage in the Church of England.

  There was none.
  Prediction accurate.

  Narrow Democrat victory in American election – country as divided as ever – widespread belief that the election was rigged.

  Well, there was a Democrat victory in America. It wasn’t as narrow as it initially appeared but the country is as divided as ever with widespread belief that the election was rigged.
  Prediction substantially accurate.

  Scottish government proposals on reforming the Gender Recognition Act go through largely as proposed in consultation document.

  I’m sorry this didn’t happen and I’m sorry that trans people are at the epicentre of the latest culture war. The Scottish government’s proposals on Gender ID were pragmatic and sensible and no-one has come up with any better proposals on how a gender recognition certificate should be issued. (Statutary declaration by individual whilst criminalizing false or misleading declarations).
  Prediction inaccurate.

  Limited agreements at COP talks but derided as too little too late.

  No COP.
  Prediction inaccurate due to covid.

  UK leaves the EU and is subsequently unable to agree a substantial deal.

  Well, the UK did leave the EU and just about managed to agree a substantial deal though not a very good one.
  Prediction mostly inaccurate.

  No trade deal with the USA

  No trade deal with the USA.
  Prediction accurate

  Yvette Cooper will become the leader of the Labour Party.

  Missed this one but I note that Rosemary Hannah correctly tipped Starmer in the comments.
  Prediction inaccurate.

  Stock market lower at the end of the year than it is today. (FTSE 7,542.44)

  FTSE at 6470.
  Prediction accurate.

  Increasing visible support for LGBT Roman Catholics from within the Roman Catholic Church.

  This was the one that most people seemed to think bonkers. I actually had in mind something quite local which didn’t happen due to Covid but which I think might happen next year instead. However, the Holy Father came through for me – “Pope Francis backs same-sex civil unions” and in recent days we have had – “Head of German bishops, self-described conservative, calls for change”. Stuff is happening in the RC church. It is a long journey but there’s change in the air. Prediction accurate.

  Overall – not bad, considering…

  2020, predictions, Predictions 2020

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