What is in Kelvin's Head?

  • Last year’s predictions (2020) – how did I do?

    Well, thank you for asking.

    Here’s what I predicted for 2020 and here’s how I did.

    Scotland will not vote for Independence in 2020

    Scotland didn’t.
    Prediction accurate.

    No progress for those hoping for Equal Marriage in the Church of England.

    There was none.
    Prediction accurate.

    Narrow Democrat victory in American election – country as divided as ever – widespread belief that the election was rigged.

    Well, there was a Democrat victory in America. It wasn’t as narrow as it initially appeared but the country is as divided as ever with widespread belief that the election was rigged.
    Prediction substantially accurate.

    Scottish government proposals on reforming the Gender Recognition Act go through largely as proposed in consultation document.

    I’m sorry this didn’t happen and I’m sorry that trans people are at the epicentre of the latest culture war. The Scottish government’s proposals on Gender ID were pragmatic and sensible and no-one has come up with any better proposals on how a gender recognition certificate should be issued. (Statutary declaration by individual whilst criminalizing false or misleading declarations).
    Prediction inaccurate.

    Limited agreements at COP talks but derided as too little too late.

    No COP.
    Prediction inaccurate due to covid.

    UK leaves the EU and is subsequently unable to agree a substantial deal.

    Well, the UK did leave the EU and just about managed to agree a substantial deal though not a very good one.
    Prediction mostly inaccurate.

    No trade deal with the USA

    No trade deal with the USA.
    Prediction accurate

    Yvette Cooper will become the leader of the Labour Party.

    Missed this one but I note that Rosemary Hannah correctly tipped Starmer in the comments.
    Prediction inaccurate.

    Stock market lower at the end of the year than it is today. (FTSE 7,542.44)

    FTSE at 6470.
    Prediction accurate.

    Increasing visible support for LGBT Roman Catholics from within the Roman Catholic Church.

    This was the one that most people seemed to think bonkers. I actually had in mind something quite local which didn’t happen due to Covid but which I think might happen next year instead. However, the Holy Father came through for me – “Pope Francis backs same-sex civil unions” and in recent days we have had – “Head of German bishops, self-described conservative, calls for change”. Stuff is happening in the RC church. It is a long journey but there’s change in the air. Prediction accurate.

    Overall – not bad, considering…

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4 responses to “The SNP and Equal Marriage”

  1. Indy Avatar
    Indy

    I think the issue is that the SNP Government is going to authorise religious same sex marriages as well as civil ones.

    It would be an obvious compromise to allow civil weddings but not religious ones – that seems to be the route the UK Govt will go down.

    It would be tempting for the SG to do the same. It’s a neat solution – that way they could say there is no question of religious denominations being forced to perform same sex marriages. It will only be civil ceremonies.

    And, let’s face it, although there are some religious denominationa which support same sex marriage – Unitarians, Quakers, Liberal Jews, Pagan Federation etc – how many Unitarians, Quakers, Liberal Jews, Pagans etc are actually out there? They are very much outnumbered by the Catholics, Muslims and fundamentalist Protestants aren’t they?

    But for some reason the SG has decided to go for the option which allows religious as well as civil same sex marriages. We can only assume that, for them, that is actually an issue of principle, of support for religious freedom.

    But it makes it more complicated doesn’t it? Because they have to find a way to protect the rights of religious denominations which wish to conduct same sex marriages while also protecting the rights of religious denominations who do not want to conduct same sex marriages. And do that in the context of legislation which protects religious rights, freedom of speech and equality which is not within their control.

    Reply
  2. Lazarus Avatar
    Lazarus

    Putting aside any issues of substance here, I’m not sure you’re being quite accurate in your interpretation of John Haldane’s Newsnicht appearance. He was careful to distinguish between civil partnerships and same sex marriage, saying that the latter had to be discussed within an understanding of the ‘common good’ (a discussion which the programme didn’t have time to allow). I’d be amazed if he’s changed his opposition to same sex marriage (expressed quite regularly in the media eg in the Beyond Belief programme here http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b019rlng/Beyond_Belief_Same_Sex_Marriage/).

    As to whether Haldane was criticizing the Cardinal -I suspect any interpretation along these lines would require quite a degree of cynicism (or wishful thinking!) given his previously highly supportive attitude (eg http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6707465.stm).

    Reply
  3. Jaye Richards-Hill Avatar
    Jaye Richards-Hill

    I met him when Ruth and I did the Big Questions earlier this year. Apparently, Haldane is an advisor to Pope Benedict….

    Reply
  4. Erp Avatar
    Erp

    There may not be many Unitarians, Quakers, Reform Jews in Scotland but there are a lot of Humanist weddings (I believe in Scotland in 2010 the number of weddings by Humanist celebrants exceeded the number of Catholic weddings) so they are the biggest group performing legally recognized opposite-sex marriages who would like to perform legally recognized same-sex marriages (as opposed to a ceremony after a same-sex marriage has been registered at the registry office).

    Reply

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